The Collapse of the Rules-Based Order: Gradual Then Sudden
What Ernest Hemingway famously observed about bankruptcy applies equally to the demise of the rules-based international order: it happened in two distinct phases - gradually, then suddenly. The gradual erosion spanned over two decades, marked by significant failures and hypocrisies that exposed the system's ineffectiveness and perceived unfairness. The invasion of Iraq, the global financial crisis, and the pandemic response all contributed to weakening the established framework.
The sudden collapse arrived with the presidency of Donald Trump, whose administration fundamentally challenged international norms. Trump threatened traditional allies, abandoned key international agreements, imposed sweeping tariffs on goods ranging from Canadian steel to Korean automobiles, and launched unprovoked military operations against Venezuela and Iran. These actions represented a dramatic departure from decades of American foreign policy.
Bedrock Principles Abandoned
Trump's approach effectively disavowed core principles that had guided international relations for eighty years: territorial integrity, self-determination, free trade, and human rights. While these principles had often been "pleasant fictions" - ignored when inconvenient to national interests - the world order built around American security, financial architecture, and problem-solving institutions had provided unprecedented predictability and stability compared to historical alternatives.
The Emergence of a New Geopolitical Reality
Many observers predict a grim future characterized by "The Great Unravelling," "New World Disorder," or a return to mere anarchy and greed. Some invoke historical parallels to Thucydides' observations or the early 19th century when great powers divided the world like players in a strategic game. International relations appear to be regressing toward a Hobbesian state of nature - solitary, competitive, and brutish.
Political scientist Ian Bremmer argues that Trump's foreign policy lacks any grand strategy, operating instead according to the "law of the jungle." The hastily undertaken war with Iran, with its cascading effects on regional stability and global energy prices, seems to confirm this assessment.
Complexity Defines the New Century
The reality, however, proves more nuanced. As physicist Stephen Hawking predicted in 2000, this century belongs to complexity. While Hawking referred to scientific exploration of complex adaptive systems, his observation applies equally to geopolitics. Like a diverse jungle overtaking a single-crop plantation, a wild, decentralized ecosystem is replacing the world order once concentrated in U.S. power and institutions.
European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas noted at this year's Munich Security Conference that what the "law of the jungle" perspective overlooks is that wilderness environments teem with cooperative behavior. Diverse organisms form mutually beneficial relationships to grow, thrive, overcome obstacles, and mitigate risks.
Middle Powers as Geopolitical Swing States
In this new landscape, middle powers emerge as major players capable of acting as geopolitical swing states, tilting the balance of power or pursuing what former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney termed "variable geometry." These nations possess increasing influence in shaping international outcomes.
The new world order will be defined by connectivity without hegemony. Numerous state and non-state actors will coalesce more fluidly around specific issues and needs, forming intricate networks that complement and sometimes supplant traditional international institutions. For challenges that benefit from distributed action - including trade, public health, and climate change - this decentralized approach might even represent an improvement over previous systems.
Geopolitical 'Polyamory' as the New Norm
This emerging paradigm represents what might be called geopolitical "polyamory" - multiple, simultaneous relationships between nations and organizations focused on specific issues rather than exclusive alliances. The system allows for cooperation in some areas while maintaining competition in others, creating a more complex but potentially more resilient international framework.
As the old order gives way to this new reality, the international community faces both increased dangers and new opportunities for cooperation. The challenge lies in navigating this complex terrain where traditional power structures have fragmented, but new forms of collaboration continue to emerge across multiple fronts simultaneously.
