City officials are reassuring Calgarians that extensive flooding is unlikely, with infrastructure and reservoir management eliminating more than 70 per cent of the damage potential seen in 2013.
In a statement made to Postmedia, the City of Calgary said weather conditions are tracking “largely as forecasted,” with 40 to 70 millimetres expected to fall across Calgary and the Bow and Elbow River catchments through Tuesday.
Rainfall and Wind Gusts
Rain is expected to continue for Calgary, with some relief on the horizon by Wednesday, said Environment Canada meteorologist Christy Climenhaga in a Monday update. But for now, it’s “cats and dogs” across the province due to a low pressure system pulling moisture into Alberta, and the yellow rainfall advisory for the city remains in effect.
“In the Calgary area there’s a lot of variation through the city, as you often see, like 27.8 mm (of rain) at the airport over the last 48 hours, whereas towards Springbank it’s 42 mm,” Climenhaga said. “And just south of Calgary, if you head towards Staveley, about 100 mm.”
Precipitation varies across the city, with some areas looking to see anywhere from 20 to 40 mm or 50 to 60 mm over the next few days. June usually brings 112.7 mm of rain to Calgary, Climenhaga said.
Along with the rain, the city is also experiencing high wind gusts that are likely to stick around until Tuesday night. “In Calgary, it looks like our peak wind gusts over the last 24 hours have been around 80 kilometres per hour,” Climenhaga said.
Infrastructure and Reservoir Management
The colder forecast is also helping to limit runoff conditions. “Cooler temperatures have slowed alpine snowmelt, and precipitation at higher elevations is accumulating as snow, reducing the severity of streamflow runoff,” said the city in its statement.
Even if temperatures unexpectedly rise, the city’s Glenmore Reservoir and TransAlta’s Ghost Reservoir have the storage capacity to collect runoff to release it at lower rates. Both reservoirs are keeping river flows manageable. “Anticipated river flows are less than 25 per cent of the peak amounts that occurred in 2013 due, in part, to these operations,” read the statement.
Outlook and Advisories
Although the weather is expected to clear up by Wednesday, the city could see more showers and possibly thunderstorms heading into Thursday. While river levels remain elevated, impacts — ranging from closed underpass pathways, a boating advisory and water pooling in streets — are expected to remain limited.
