Non-profit leaders in Alberta are raising alarms that the uncertainty surrounding the province's upcoming separatist referendum could inflict lasting damage on the social sector, long before any ballot is cast. Drawing on parallels from Quebec's separatist movement in the 1970s, they warn that the exodus of people and capital during periods of political instability directly undermines the donor base, volunteer pipelines, and multi-year funding commitments that non-profits rely on.
Personal stories from two leaders
Angie Gélinas, president and CEO of the Nonprofit Chamber, recalls growing up in Montreal during the separatist movement. Her family left Quebec in 1976, part of a wave of departures. “The vote was never the most expensive part. The uncertainty was,” she writes. “Years before any ballot, families packed up. Head offices followed.” She notes that community organizations in Quebec absorbed that exodus twice: rising need on one side, shrinking capacity on the other.
Ken Lima-Coelho, president and CEO of Big Brothers Big Sisters of Calgary and Area, chose to stay in Alberta despite career opportunities elsewhere. He emphasizes that long-term stability is essential to attract volunteers and donors, both of which are vulnerable to political uncertainty.
Referendum scale and economic stakes
On Oct. 19, 2026, Albertans will vote on ten ballot questions about the province's future. Elections Alberta has launched the largest recruitment drive in the province's history, involving 45 million printed ballots, 60,000 workers, and tens of millions of dollars. But according to Gélinas and Lima-Coelho, the most expensive part of the referendum is not the vote itself—it is the decisions made now.
Alberta's non-profit sector contributes $22.2 billion to the economy annually, comprising 30,000 organizations and 285,000 jobs. These organizations save lives, change lives, and make lives worth living. However, more than half are already facing rising demand with flat or shrinking capacity. The sector runs on exactly the things uncertainty erodes first: multi-year funding commitments, volunteer pipelines, donor confidence, and newcomers deciding to put down roots.
Warning from Quebec's experience
Gélinas and Lima-Coelho stress that non-profits cannot wait until October to find out what kind of province they are operating in. “Neither do the kids, seniors and families they serve,” they write. They point to the Bank of Montreal's move to Toronto as evidence that uncertainty drives capital away. “When people and capital leave, the donors leave, too. So do the volunteers, the coaches, the board members.”
The authors clarify that they are not telling anyone how to vote. “We’re not a campaign for staying or for leaving and this isn’t a warning. It’s testimony.”
