Political data analyst Nate Silver has assessed Democrats' chances of retaking the House in November at 85% to 90%, but expressed pessimism about flipping the Senate. Speaking on the 'All-In' podcast episode posted Monday, Silver highlighted the difficulty for Democratic Senate candidates in red states and uncertainty around Maine nominee Graham Platner as key obstacles. He estimated Republican odds of retaining the Senate at up to 60%.
House Outlook Strong for Democrats
Silver noted that prediction markets rate Democratic House chances at 80% to 85%, but he believes those figures may be conservative. 'I think if anything it’s a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90. My models surprise me sometimes,' he said. He attributed the favorable outlook to President Trump's unpopularity, voter anxiety over the economy, and historical trends of the president's party losing seats in midterms.
Silver's full report is expected in a few weeks after delays caused by the World Cup and redistricting. 'We have been through a lot of elections that are inherently hard to forecast,' he added. 'The House is the one where everything kind of points in the same direction.'
Senate Challenge for Democrats
Regarding the Senate, Silver was less optimistic. 'Even in a pretty blue environment, Democrats have to win some seats in red states,' he said. He cited the Maine race as a 'big risk,' where Democratic nominee Graham Platner leads incumbent Republican Susan Collins by only a few points in polls. Silver called the Maine Senate race a '50-50' proposition.
Silver, who gained fame for correctly predicting the winner in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, concluded that Republican Senate control is likely, with odds up to 60% in their favor.
