The New Democratic Party finds itself in a precarious position as its leadership contest unfolds, with political observers describing the race as resembling a death march rather than a vibrant competition for the party's future.
A Party in Peril
When the NDP succeeds at the provincial level, it typically functions as the centre-left option within what becomes a de-facto two-party system. However, in Ottawa, that role is already occupied, leaving the federal NDP struggling to define its purpose and relevance.
The party currently doesn't even hold official party status in the House of Commons, having been reduced to just seven MPs following the 2025 federal election. This dramatic collapse under Jagmeet Singh's leadership has created a political environment where the Conservatives benefit significantly from vote splitting on the centre-left.
The Election Timing Dilemma
From multiple perspectives, a snap federal election call appears unlikely and potentially irrational. The Liberals have no compelling reason to go early, as there's no evidence they're not achieving their legislative goals in the House of Commons.
There's always the risk of voter backlash if a governing party is perceived to be calling an election prematurely simply to press its advantage. Given that Canadians went to the polls just seven months ago, any early election would likely face significant public skepticism.
The situation is slightly more complex for the Conservatives. While the party as a whole might benefit from waiting, leader Pierre Poilievre might prefer an earlier election depending on how his January leadership review unfolds.
Polling Numbers Tell a Troubling Story
According to Abacus Data polling, Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval ratings have been steadily declining. The gap between approval and disapproval has shrunk from 53 percent approval and 23 percent disapproval in June to 44 percent approval and 34 percent disapproval this month.
Despite this trend, there's little expectation of a significant rebound for the Liberal leader. Under Poilievre, the Conservatives achieved a remarkable 41.3 percent of the popular vote in the last election—the largest haul of any Conservative leader since Brian Mulroney.
However, this substantial vote share wasn't sufficient to prevent a near-Liberal majority, largely due to the NDP's collapse. The Conservative party struggles without significant vote splitting on the centre-left, and if an election were held today, the NDP might face near-total elimination.
The party's remaining MPs hold precarious positions. Only two of the seven NDP MPs won their ridings by more than 10 percentage points in 2025. Leadership candidate Heather McPherson represents the safest seat, having bested her second-place Conservative rival by 14 points in Edmonton Strathcona.
Interim leader Don Davies, who captured 52 percent of the vote in Vancouver Kingsway in 2021, saw his margin shrink dramatically in 2025, defeating the second-place Liberal candidate by just 310 votes.
Strategic Recommendations for Survival
Political analysts suggest that the NDP should adopt a clear position regarding the Liberal government's budget. Rather than appearing uncertain, the party should explicitly state its intention to keep the government afloat—barring unforeseen circumstances—until New Democrats elect a new leader in March 2026.
This approach would provide stability while the party undergoes its leadership transition and might secure minor concessions from the governing Liberals in exchange for support. For a party in the NDP's vulnerable position, this represents a reasonable and strategically sound course of action during this period of internal rebuilding.
The coming months will prove critical for Canada's New Democrats as they attempt to redefine their role in federal politics and avoid potential political oblivion in the next election.
