John Tory Leads Poll in Beaches-East York Despite No Interest in Public Office
A recent poll conducted by Forum Research reveals that former Toronto mayor John Tory holds significant support among voters in the Beaches-East York riding, even as he has publicly expressed disinterest in re-entering public life. The survey, which involved 415 residents, indicates that Tory would be a formidable candidate if he chose to run in a potential federal byelection.
Poll Results and Voter Preferences
According to the poll, Tory commands the support of 40% of voters in Beaches-East York. Following closely is Avi Lewis, the new federal NDP leader who currently lacks a seat in Parliament, with 31% support. The Conservative candidate from the last federal election, Jocelyne Poirier, garnered 20%, while Green Party representative Jack Pennings received only 5%. An additional 5% of voters remain undecided, suggesting the race could be competitive if it materializes.
Tory's appeal is particularly strong among younger voters and college graduates, as noted by Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. In contrast, Lewis performs better with university-educated voters. The poll also found that supporters of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre for prime minister tend to favor Tory in a byelection scenario, with 60% and 51% backing him respectively.
Tory's Stance on Public Office
Despite the poll results, John Tory has made it clear that he is not seeking a return to public office. In a statement to the Toronto Sun, Tory explained, "Having just made the difficult decision not to run for mayor, a job I loved, it wasn't top of mind for me to seek a different job in public office." He resigned as mayor in February 2023 after revelations of an inappropriate relationship with a staffer and had considered but ultimately declined to run in the upcoming municipal election.
Political Context and Riding Dynamics
The Beaches-East York riding may become available federally as current Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith has announced his intention to run for the leadership of the provincial Liberals by seeking nomination in the Scarborough Southwest byelection. This move could open the door for a new candidate in Beaches-East York, though Tory's lack of interest complicates the political landscape.
The Forum Research poll was conducted via an interactive voice response telephone survey between Tuesday and Wednesday, targeting randomly selected Beaches-East York residents aged 18 and older. With a small percentage of undecided voters, the situation remains fluid and could evolve as events unfold.
