Toronto's long-suffering housing market may have finally bottomed out after a prolonged slide, as resales saw a slight uptick in March compared to February. According to a recent report from National Bank of Canada Capital Markets, sales grew by 1.4 percent month over month, breaking a streak of seven consecutive monthly declines in activity.
Sales Levels Remain Low
Despite the modest gain, the report highlights that sales levels in Canada's largest housing market are still nearly 40 percent below the historical average. Transaction volumes remain comparable to those seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. National Bank noted that trade concerns for Ontario's manufacturing-heavy economy continue to weigh on the housing market, compounded by ongoing affordability challenges.
Affordability Squeeze
The monthly mortgage payment for the median home in Toronto remains steep, consuming about 70 percent of the median income. Only Vancouver is less affordable, where the median home requires a mortgage payment equal to roughly 85 percent of median income.
Year-Over-Year Comparison
On a year-over-year basis, Toronto sales grew nearly two percent in March. However, March 2025 was among the lowest activity months since the 1990s. Active listings also dropped by eight percent, which the bank attributes to sellers being discouraged by the lack of market momentum.
Condo Market Shows Signs of Life
Condominium apartment sales rose 3.6 percent in March from February, but this followed a nearly 32 percent plunge in January from December. March's condo data indicates momentum growth, building on February's 12 percent gain from January's steep decline. Nevertheless, overall condo sales in March were at their lowest level since 2008.
Listings Decline
Active listings for all housing types decreased by 3.5 percent month over month in March, the first decline in five months. Despite this, listings remain at historically high levels, suggesting that many sellers are still hesitant to enter the market.
