A new survey by the Alberta Chambers of Commerce reveals that 39 per cent of its members and business respondents believe the ongoing debate about provincial separation is affecting their companies, an increase of 11 percentage points since January. Nearly half of respondents said the discourse is not having an influence.
Impact on Economy and Investment
Among those who perceive an impact, almost seven in 10 cited concerns about slowing the economy or a potential recession, followed by effects on investment and declining sales. Slightly more than two-thirds of respondents said the issue is affecting the provincial economy, and of those, about 90 per cent characterized it as negative. They cited ramifications on business investment and companies considering leaving the province.
Of those who believe the discussion is impacting Alberta’s economy, about six in 10 said it would increase the risk of a recession, make it harder to grow trade with other provinces, and lead to talent leaving or make it more difficult to attract workers.
Business Leaders Express Uncertainty
“There’s real uncertainty as this issue has surfaced, and as we’re trying to work through it as a province,” said Alberta Chambers of Commerce CEO Shauna Feth in an interview. “This is having an impact, and it is something that they’re concerned about — and it is constraining their decisions around … investment and deployment of capital and hiring.”
Alberta voters will weigh in on the separation issue as part of a referendum in October. The results would not trigger the province leaving Canada, but could start the legal process to hold a binding referendum in the future.
Survey Methodology and Public Opinion
The chamber’s online survey of 681 business respondents was conducted between late May and June 17, while it also commissioned an online poll of 800 Albertans earlier this month. Among the general public, 62 per cent of Albertans said the discourse surrounding separation is affecting the provincial economy.
Long-Term Confidence Declines
The group’s survey also examined other economic issues in the province. It noted the number of business leaders who are feeling positive about the long-term view of the province has declined to 54 per cent, down from 71 per cent two years ago. Asked about the most important issues facing the province, business leaders cited federal policies on Alberta (20 per cent) as the top concern. While not specifically mentioned on the list, separation was written in by 15 per cent, garnering second spot.
