Now that Premier Danielle Smith has added a separation question to Alberta's Oct. 19 referendum ballot, how secure is her position as leader of the United Conservative Party?
Some separatist leaders are angry with Smith for the question she chose — so angry, they say they are organizing to oust her.
After insisting she is a federalist, while helping the separatist group Stay Free Alberta get a referendum through a successful citizen petition, the group's leaders, Mitch Sylvestre and Jeffery Rath, feel Smith pulled a bait-and-switch by choosing a different question than the one they petitioned for.
Smith says she will remain premier whichever way the October vote goes since her government's mandate runs until October 2027. How confident should she be?
Leadership Review Threat
Rath and Sylvestre have floated forcing a leadership review to oust Smith, perhaps as early as August. Recruiting new members to the party is central to their plan.
But what if the review attracts interest from federalist Albertans outside the UCP who believe Smith has exploited separatism for political gain? These Albertans lack an outlet for their frustration. They may not wait until the next election to hold her to account for burdening their province with a separation vote.
Precedent for Cross-Party Participation
There is precedent for Alberta voters joining parties they wouldn't otherwise support to have a say. The historical dominance of the Progressive Conservative Party in Alberta politics has made some party leadership contests proxies for general elections in the province. Races to replace premiers Ralph Klein in 2006 and Ed Stelmach in 2012 drew non-members who enrolled in the party to choose the next leader and the direction for their province. Even the provincial NDP leadership race in 2024 drew concerns about opportunistic participation by non-traditional supporters.
Sylvestre and Rath would have to convince UCP constituency associations to hold the leadership review, something many in the party may resist unless a capable member of Smith's cabinet is willing to take her place should she lose.
Also, with the next election in sight, UCP members would be concerned about weakening the party with a leadership change and providing the provincial NDP with a potential path to power. Further, it's not clear that federalist Albertans are angry enough to join the party just to remove its current leader.
Party President Downplays Efforts
Rob Smith, UCP party president, pointed to the strong approval rating Smith received — 91.5 per cent — in 2024 to downplay any efforts to depose Smith.
A lot has happened since then. Alberta separatism has cast a long shadow over the province and the country over the past year, drawing international headlines and raising concerns about foreign influence and fears that the movement is weakening Canadian unity.
And many believe Smith's question will do little to resolve the issue.
Poll Shows Widespread Dissatisfaction
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll found that of all the respondents who would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada, 79 per cent said Smith has handled the separation issue poorly. For all the respondents who would vote to leave, 85 per cent also said Smith handled the issue poorly. The poll also found that 40 per cent of Albertans want her to stay regardless of the separation outcome.
At a news conference following her provincial address announcing the separation question, Smith positioned herself as a staunch federalist, saying she has been actively campaigning to save the country since the moment she was elected.
It may be up to angry Albertans on both sides of the separation issue to decide whether Smith can continue on as UCP leader and premier of Alberta.
She may end up uniting Albertans after all.
Matt Gray is a Calgary-based senior strategist and Principal of GrayPoint Communications Advisory.
