Not long ago, Ontario Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservative Party seemed to hold an unassailable lead in opinion polls. However, by the last week of April, an Abacus Data poll showed the party at 37 percent, statistically tied with the leaderless Ontario Liberals at 36 percent. Another poll from Liaison Strategies placed the Liberals slightly ahead, with 38 percent versus the PCs at 36 percent, prompting the headline 'Ford in free fall.'
While polls can fluctuate and sometimes be inaccurate, there is no denying that Ford's popularity has clearly declined. Last fall, his party typically led by about 20 percentage points. That significant advantage has now evaporated.
What caused the decline?
From a policy perspective, little of consequence has changed. The government's budget, tabled on March 26, was fiscally reckless, but such budgets have been presented for years. Neither the Ontario Liberals nor the NDP have recently introduced bold policies to capture public attention.
The main shift in Ontario politics has been one of perception and appearances. Previously, Ford governed and spent like a Liberal but managed to talk and appear like a Conservative, branding himself a 'prudent fiscal manager' and 'staunch fiscal conservative.' This strategy worked, and many Ontarians who did not closely follow government finances likely believed him. However, recent stories and headlines have likely eroded that belief.
The private jet controversy
A key incident involved the premier's private jet. The government spent $28.9 million on the aircraft, with the premier's office claiming it was necessary for travel. While much of Ford's spending has been wasteful, a private jet for the premier of a province with over 16 million people spread across more than a million square kilometres could be defensible, given his frequent travel to remote areas. However, opposition parties cleverly dubbed it the 'gravy plane,' a play on the 'gravy train' that Ford and his late brother Rob vowed to stop during their time at Toronto City Hall.
Suddenly, the Liberals and even the NDP appeared as scrappy fiscal stewards, while Ford seemed like an entitled politician enjoying perks at taxpayers' expense. In response, Ford panicked and sold the plane back to Bombardier, but also claimed he was 'inundated' with calls urging him to keep it. This mixed message suggested a lack of conviction, as if he was merely trying to sail with the wind.
The path to recovery
To regain his popularity, Ford must start governing like a true Conservative. This means ending the reckless spending that has characterized his tenure and adopting a more fiscally responsible approach. He should cut unnecessary expenditures, reduce the size of government, and focus on policies that promote economic growth and individual freedom.
Additionally, Ford needs to communicate a clear and consistent message. He must stop sending mixed signals and instead articulate a coherent conservative vision for Ontario. By doing so, he can rebuild trust with voters who feel disillusioned by his recent actions.
Ultimately, the key to Ford's comeback lies in authentic conservative governance. If he can shed the Liberal-style spending and adopt a principled approach, he may once again gain the support of Ontarians who are looking for a leader with conviction.
