For the first time in recorded history, British Columbia is projected to end the year with fewer residents than it started with, marking a dramatic demographic shift for the province.
What's Behind the Historic Population Drop?
The decline is primarily attributed to a significant outflow of non-permanent residents. According to Statistics Canada's third-quarter estimates for this year, B.C.'s overall population fell by a net 14,335 people between July and October. This drop was overwhelmingly driven by a net loss of 17,243 non-permanent residents during that same period.
Nationally, this trend contributed to a 0.2 per cent decrease in Canada's total population. The exodus from B.C. represents the second-largest provincial population decline in the country for that quarter, trailing only Ontario. During this period, only Alberta and Nunavut saw their populations grow.
A Sudden Reversal After Years of Growth
This downturn follows several years of robust population expansion. Between 2022 and 2024, B.C.'s population surged from approximately 5.3 million to just under 5.7 million. Premier David Eby has frequently cited this rapid growth as a key factor driving increased demand for housing, healthcare, and other public services.
Earlier losses in 2024 were linked to a decline in natural population growth and interprovincial migration. However, the decreases in the past two quarters, which constitute the vast majority of the annual decline, are due to out-migration, specifically the departure of non-permanent residents.
Economic and Social Implications
Experts suggest the population decrease could have mixed consequences for the province. On one hand, it may help alleviate pressure on the rental market in certain areas, potentially driving down rents. On the other, it is unlikely to provide immediate relief for the overburdened healthcare system and could worsen labour shortages in key sectors.
Lisa Brunner, a post-doctoral fellow at UBC's centre for migration studies, highlighted the broader impacts. "We're definitely seeing the impacts on the post-secondary system in the country because a lot of institutions are struggling financially," Brunner said. "We're also starting to see it in some companies that are saying that they're having difficulty hiring workers."
The provincial government has acknowledged the shift. Jobs Minister Ravi Kahlon stated that the reduction gives B.C. "a moment to breathe," but he also recognized that immigration will remain necessary to address gaps in the labour force.
Premier Eby has been vocal about aligning immigration with infrastructure capacity. In September, he connected Canada's temporary foreign worker program to high youth unemployment, noting that 18,500 young people stopped looking for work in June. "We can't have an immigration system that fills up our homeless shelters and our food banks. We can't have an immigration system that outpaces our ability to build schools and housing," Eby stated, drawing criticism from some within his own party.
The departure of over 26,000 non-permanent residents from B.C. in just a few months signals a pivotal moment for the province's economic and social planning, as it adjusts to its first-ever recorded population decline.
