Cato Institute Studies Challenge Trump's Immigration Narrative with Data on Crime and Economics
In a striking counterpoint to the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies, two recent studies from the Cato Institute present evidence that immigrants, both legal and undocumented, offer significant benefits to the United States. The research, published in April 2025 and this month, refutes claims that immigrants are a drain on resources or a source of increased crime, instead highlighting their positive contributions to public safety and federal budgets.
Crime Rates Lower Among Immigrant Populations
The April 2025 study examined incarceration data from Texas and Georgia, states that track citizenship and immigration status. It found that undocumented immigrants have a crime rate just over half that of native-born Americans, while legal immigrants have an even lower rate, at only 26% of native-born levels. David Bier, an immigration policy researcher at Cato, emphasized the importance of focusing on individual cases rather than broad hostility. "If there are people who are a problem, OK, focus on them. But overall, we should be looking at the upside," Bier said, criticizing the current administration's approach.
Economic Impact: Immigrants Generate Trillions in Net Tax Revenue
A second report reveals that immigrants use fewer public services on average than American citizens, leading to a substantial positive impact on local and federal budgets. Over two decades from 1994 to 2023, non-citizens generated $4.6 trillion more in taxes than they consumed in benefits, with $1.7 trillion of that coming from undocumented immigrants. This is partly because undocumented immigrants cannot access programs like Medicaid, Social Security, and Medicare, yet they still pay taxes for these systems. The study notes that while educating children of immigrants may incur costs, most migrants arrive as teens or young adults without school-age children, offsetting these expenses.
Trump Administration's Rhetoric Versus Research Findings
President Donald Trump and his top aide Stephen Miller have long demonized immigrants, with Trump famously labeling some as "rapists" and "drug dealers" in his 2015 campaign speech. The administration has continued to portray undocumented immigrants as violent criminals, using graphic descriptions in speeches to justify deportation policies. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has claimed that deportations have made streets safer, while Miller has argued that illegal families cost taxpayers millions. However, the Cato analyses challenge these assertions, showing that immigrants are overwhelmingly workforce participants, with two-thirds of undocumented immigrants paying income and payroll taxes.
Policy Implications and Expert Recommendations
The Cato reports conclude that targeted removal of violent criminals among non-citizens is warranted, but mass deportation policies indiscriminately aimed at all undocumented immigrants will not reduce crime rates or improve economic outcomes. Alex Nowrasteh, co-author of the crime study, accused the administration of exaggerating immigrant crime to justify its policies. "Few would support ICE pulling women out of cars in the middle of busy streets if they just violated immigration laws, so the Trump administration pretends they’re all killers," he said. Bier advocates for a more nuanced immigration system that builds on existing successes, suggesting a clear-eyed analysis would lead to policies opposite those currently pursued.
As the debate over immigration enforcement intensifies, with incidents like the "Catahoula Crunch" raid in Metairie, Louisiana, highlighting tensions, these studies provide a data-driven perspective that questions the foundational assumptions of current federal strategies.
