The U.S. Senate unanimously agreed in April to ban senators and their staff from participating in prediction markets, citing the urgent ethical threat of insider trading. The House of Representatives, however, has not followed suit, with Republicans opting for a more arduous legislative process rather than a simple rules change.
Senate Action vs. House Inaction
The Senate resolution was uncontroversial. Prediction markets like Kalshi allow bets on events such as whether witnesses say certain words during Senate hearings, creating clear opportunities for lawmakers or their employees to profit from non-public information. Despite this, the House has been slow to act. The House Administration Committee advanced legislation on Wednesday that would ban members from using prediction markets, but a floor vote may not come until later this year.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), who chairs the committee, told HuffPost the legislation could be paired with a stock trading ban for lawmakers. “I think we’d be best served if we passed a legal fix, not just a rules change,” Steil said. A legal fix, however, would require Senate approval, which is not guaranteed.
Democrats Question GOP Motives
Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.), the committee’s top Democrat, questioned why Republicans were taking the long route. “What’s the holdup? We can clean up our own house, and we can do it today by unanimous consent,” Morelle said at the committee’s meeting on Wednesday. “It shouldn’t be hard. The Senate unanimously agreed to amend its rules to immediately and explicitly prohibit senators and their staffs from participating in prediction markets. It was effective immediately. A total ban on participation.”
Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) introduced a resolution banning member participation in prediction markets the same day the Senate approved one by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) introduced another the following week. Both resolutions have not advanced.
Conflict of Interest Concerns
Morelle noted during the hearing that President Donald Trump’s son is an advisor to prediction market companies, whose business models have been blessed by the administration’s novel reading of the law governing event contracts. Morelle suggested Steil was merely trying to stall reform. “I believe this bill, like the Stop Insider Trading Act, is meant to blunt the momentum on real reform,” Morelle said.
Steil argued that insider trading by lawmakers using prediction markets might already be illegal, even if not explicitly banned. He also said a law would be enforceable against former members, while a rules change would not. “A legislative fix is better because if an individual leaves the House, you can actually enforce that,” Steil said.
Challenges to Passing Legislation
Passing legislation through the House remains difficult. The chamber has been nearly shut down this week due to a rebellion from a far-right faction led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who is pushing for voting restrictions. Luna has also been a vocal advocate for a beefed-up stock trading ban.
HuffPost asked Steil what would be wrong with doing both—changing House rules immediately while his legislation moves through the chamber. “I don’t have jurisdiction over House rules,” Steil said. Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), chair of the House Rules Committee, said she had not considered a rule to ban members from prediction markets. “It sounds like a good idea to me,” Foxx told HuffPost. “We should.”
