A Nanos Research Group poll for Bloomberg News reveals that 60 per cent of Canadians believe Prime Minister Mark Carney has done a very good or good job managing the economy. Only 24 per cent rate his performance as poor or very poor, while 14 per cent consider it average and two per cent are unsure.
Worst economic debut in over 60 years
The strong approval ratings come despite Canada's real gross domestic product shrinking by 0.05 per cent since Carney took office—the worst first-year growth for any prime minister since at least 1963. For comparison, Stephen Harper saw 1.4 per cent growth in 2006-07, and Justin Trudeau recorded 1.7 per cent in 2015-16.
Carney maintained tighter immigration policies inherited from his predecessor, sharply reducing non-permanent resident arrivals and dampening overall growth. He also took office amid escalating trade tensions with the United States, Canada's largest export market.
Recession indicators and affordability relief
Consumer spending and the housing market have weakened. U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and threats weigh on business investment and have crimped many non-energy exports. Back-to-back quarterly GDP contractions meet a common definition of recession, though most economists and the Bank of Canada have dismissed that label for now.
However, the slower economy has brought some affordability relief, which may be helping Carney politically. Lower inflation and reduced consumer demand have eased price pressures for households.
Canadians blame global factors
According to Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, the polling data suggest Canadians attribute the country's economic woes to global factors rather than Carney himself. “The uncertainty in the Canada–U.S. relationship—largely driven by Trump’s negotiation strategy—has likely diverted attention from the Carney government to the Trump administration,” Nanos said. “At this time they’re getting a pass on the state of Canada’s finances and stewardship of the economy.”
Conservative criticism not resonating
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has attacked Carney’s economic record, calling him “badly educated” in economics despite his degrees from Harvard University and the University of Oxford and experience leading two central banks. Poilievre argues Carney was wrong on major issues such as post-pandemic inflation and criticizes the pace of government action on approving major resource projects. The survey suggests his criticisms are not resonating with most Canadians.
