The Calgary Chamber of Commerce released a study on June 25, 2026, projecting that Alberta separation from Canada could cause an eight percent downturn in the provincial economy, equating to $62 billion in economic activity and 175,000 jobs. The report, authored by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe, intensifies the ongoing debate over the economic consequences of independence.
Key findings of the Calgary Chamber report
The study estimates that disruption of trading patterns and partnerships would lead to significant economic losses. Tombe, a respected economist, based his projections on the effects of Brexit on the British economy following the 2016 referendum on the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. He extrapolated that trade costs would immediately rise due to regulatory differences and potential tariffs, and Alberta could initially be excluded from international trade agreements that Canada currently participates in.
These numbers are more substantial than those previously released by the Edmonton Chamber, which had focused on claims that separatist talks are already harming Alberta businesses. National figures continue to show Alberta as the strongest provincial economy in Canada, according to the article.
Reactions and context
Separatist leaders have objected to the report, arguing that leaving Confederation would have only positive impacts. Some critics pointed out that Tombe is a member of the pro-federalist organization Lead Not Leave. However, the article notes that Tombe is difficult to disagree with, as he previously quantified the devastating effects of the provincial NDP government's environmental policies on Alberta investment between 2015 and 2019, which resulted in tens of billions in lost income and over 100,000 jobs lost.
The article also suggests that the federal government might be punitive toward an exiting Alberta, imposing costs and delaying the division of pension money and tax revenues. The negative consequences might not last forever, but for at least a few years, the dislocation from leaving Confederation could cost tens of billions in lost opportunities and transaction costs.
Broader implications
The report adds fuel to the "Great Numbers War" over Alberta separatism, with both sides using economic data to support their positions. Tombe's work is seen as a credible counter to separatist claims, given his track record of analyzing economic policies. The debate continues as Albertans weigh the potential costs and benefits of independence.
