CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten issued a stark warning to Republican leadership on Friday, declaring he completely disagrees with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's dismissal of Democratic victories in this week's key election races.
"The House Is On Fire"
In a striking analogy during a segment with CNN's Kate Bolduan, Enten compared Republican leaders to the famous internet meme of a dog sitting in a burning room saying "this is fine."
"I think that the house is on fire and he's like the dog saying, 'This is fine,'" Enten stated, referring to Scalise's reaction to the election results.
Significant Democratic Performance Shifts
The data analyst presented compelling evidence of Democratic momentum. In New Jersey, Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill achieved a margin of +13 percentage points, while Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger secured a +15 point margin as of Friday morning.
These results represent a substantial improvement over Democratic performance in the same states during the 2024 presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris had managed only a +6 point margin in both states.
"If we had, let's say, an average eight-point shift across the board in all the different House seats from the 2024 prez result to then what happens in the 2026 House elections, you would be talking about a Democratic gain of about 20 seats, depending on redistricting," Enten explained.
Historical Patterns and Warning Signs
When Bolduan questioned whether these findings aligned with other recent elections, Enten emphasized that Democratic candidates in House special elections had outperformed Harris's 2024 numbers in all five instances this year, even when they ultimately lost their races.
The analyst revealed an even more telling historical pattern: the party that outperformed in special elections has gone on to win the House all five out of five times since the 2005-06 election cycle.
Adding to the concerning picture for Republicans, Enten noted that in the past 90 years, Democrats have won control of the House five out of five times in years following their party's sweep of the New York City mayoral race along with the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial contests.
"So when I see those results on Tuesday night, I see these giant — these huge shifts in the Democratic direction. I say, Republican leaders, wake the heck up and have some of what I'm having because this is a major warning sign," Enten urged.
The data expert concluded with direct advice for Republican leadership: "If I'm Steve Scalise, I am not dismissing these results. I'm going to try and get myself some fire insurance."
