The dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by United States forces has plunged the oil-rich South American nation into a state of profound uncertainty. While U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the operation as a stunning success, the critical question of who now governs Venezuela remains unanswered, exposing the complex and entrenched power structures that sustained Maduro's regime.
A Divided Leadership Emerges
In the immediate aftermath of the capture on Saturday, January 3, 2026, conflicting narratives emerged from Caracas and Washington. President Trump announced that Vice President Delcy Rodriguez had been sworn in as acting president, following Venezuela's constitutional line of succession. He noted she had already engaged with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
However, the situation on the ground quickly proved more complicated. Rodriguez appeared on state television hours later, flanked by key power brokers including her brother, National Assembly head Jorge Rodriguez, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez. In a unified display, the group declared that Nicolas Maduro remained the legitimate president, signaling a collective decision to hold the line, at least for the moment.
Trump also publicly dismissed opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Prize winner widely viewed as Maduro's most credible opponent, claiming she lacked domestic support. This stance ignores the 2024 election, where international observers assert Machado's stand-in candidate won decisively, despite the official government claiming victory.
The Civilian-Military Power Structure
For over a decade, real authority in Venezuela has resided not with a single individual but within a small, intertwined circle of civilian and military elites. This system, fueled by corruption and extensive surveillance networks, presents a far more challenging obstacle to change than the removal of Maduro alone.
Analysts describe a delicate balance within this inner circle. The civilian faction is currently represented by Delcy Rodriguez and her brother Jorge. The military and security apparatus is led by Defense Minister Padrino and, more critically, by Diosdado Cabello, a former military officer and a major figure in the socialist party.
Cabello wields immense influence over key state security organs, including the military intelligence service (DGCIM) and the civilian counterintelligence agency (SEBIN). Both agencies have been implicated by the United Nations in crimes against humanity as part of a state plan to crush dissent. Former detainees have described horrific abuses at DGCIM black sites, including electric shocks and simulated drownings.
In recent weeks, as the U.S. military buildup in Latin America intensified, Cabello was broadcast on live television ordering the DGCIM to hunt down "terrorists" and warning that "whoever strays, we will know." He repeated this rhetoric on Saturday, appearing in a flak jacket and surrounded by armed guards.
Generals, Smuggling, and the Question of Loyalty
The Venezuelan armed forces are a colossal institution with as many as 2,000 generals and admirals—more than double the number in the United States. Senior and retired officers control vital sectors of the economy, including food distribution, raw materials, and the state oil company PDVSA. Dozens hold positions on the boards of private firms, profiting from both legitimate contracts and illicit trade.
Documents reviewed by Reuters indicate that commanders aligned with Cabello and Padrino are assigned to strategic brigades along Venezuela's borders and in industrial hubs. These positions are not only tactically important but also sit astride major smuggling routes, a key source of illicit revenue.
"There are some 20 to 50 officers in the Venezuelan military who need to go, probably even more, to fully remove this regime," stated a lawyer who has represented senior Venezuelan officials. The capture of Maduro may already be triggering shifts in loyalty. The same lawyer revealed that approximately a dozen former officials and current generals have made contact, seeking to negotiate safe passage and legal immunity in exchange for intelligence.
However, those close to the powerful Diosdado Cabello suggest he is not currently interested in cutting a deal. As Venezuelan military strategist Jose Garcia noted, "The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello. Because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime."
The U.S. operation may have achieved its primary objective, but the future of Venezuela now hinges on the reactions of this deeply entrenched network of power. The unity displayed by Maduro's inner circle is its first test, and whether it fractures or holds will determine the next chapter for the troubled nation.
