U.S. Military Develops Advanced Plans for Potential Iran Conflict
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - U.S. military planning regarding Iran has progressed to an advanced stage, with comprehensive options now on the table that include targeting specific individuals as part of potential attacks and even pursuing regime change in Tehran, should President Donald Trump issue such orders. This information comes from two U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters under conditions of anonymity due to the highly sensitive nature of the strategic preparations.
Granular and Ambitious Military Options
The military options represent the latest indicators that the United States is seriously preparing for a significant conflict with Iran, should ongoing diplomatic efforts ultimately fail. Reuters initially reported last week that the U.S. military is preparing for a sustained, weeks-long operation against Iran, which could involve striking Iranian security facilities alongside nuclear infrastructure. The latest revelations suggest more detailed and ambitious planning is underway ahead of a potential decision by President Trump, who has publicly floated the idea of regime change in the Islamic Republic in recent days.
The U.S. officials did not provide further specifics on which individuals could be targeted or precisely how the U.S. military might attempt to execute regime change without deploying a large conventional ground force. Pursuing regime change would mark another notable shift away from Trump's campaign vows to abandon what he has previously criticized as the failed policies of past administrations, which included extensive military efforts to topple governments in nations like Afghanistan and Iraq.
Massive Firepower and Historical Precedents
President Trump has assembled a substantial amount of military firepower in the Middle East region, though most combat capabilities are currently aboard warships and fighter aircraft. Any major bombing campaign could also rely on support from U.S.-based strategic bombers. During his first term, Trump demonstrated a willingness to authorize targeted killings by approving a 2020 attack that killed Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani led the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, known as the Quds Force. The Trump administration formally designated the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in 2019, marking the first time Washington applied such a label to another nation's official military.
One U.S. official pointed to Israel's success in targeting Iranian leaders during its 12-day war with Iran last year. At that time, regional sources informed Reuters that at least 20 senior commanders were killed, including the armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri. "The 12-day war and Israeli strikes against individual targets really showed the utility of that approach," the U.S. official stated, adding that the focus would be on individuals involved in the command and control of IRGC forces. However, the official also cautioned that targeting specific individuals demands significant additional intelligence resources, requiring precise knowledge of their locations and an understanding of potential collateral damage.
Regime Change as a Stated Possibility
President Trump has openly discussed the possibility of changing the government in Iran, remarking last week that it "seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." He declined to specify who he might want to take over Iran but noted, "there are people." While regime change operations have traditionally involved major movements of U.S. ground forces, Trump previously turned to special operations forces in an attempt to oust Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, sending them on an audacious raid to capture him from his Caracas compound last month.
Simultaneously, the U.S. president has expressed hope for diplomacy, stating on Thursday that "really bad things" would occur if no agreement is reached. He appeared to set a deadline of no more than 10 to 15 days before the U.S. might consider taking military action. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned it could retaliate against U.S. military bases in the region if the U.S. strikes Iranian territory. The U.S. maintains bases throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey.
Diplomatic Efforts and Regional Tensions
In a letter on Thursday to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Tehran asserted it would not initiate any war but stated that "in the event that it is subjected to military aggression, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately" in exercising its right to self-defense. U.S. officials have told Reuters they fully anticipate Iran would fight back in the event of an attack, raising the risks of U.S. casualties and a broader regional conflict, given the number of countries that could be impacted by Iran's missile arsenal.
Trump's threats to bomb Iran have contributed to increases in global oil prices. On Thursday, a Russian warship participated in planned Iranian naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, a vital sea route for global energy shipments. Tehran has historically threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if attacked, a move that would choke off approximately one-fifth of global oil flows.
Nuclear Negotiations and Stalled Diplomacy
Iranian and U.S. negotiators met on Tuesday, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicating they had agreed on "guiding principles." However, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Wednesday that the two sides remain far apart on several critical issues. Iran has resisted making major concessions on its nuclear program, while insisting its intentions are purely peaceful. The U.S. and Israel have previously accused Tehran of attempting to develop a nuclear weapon.
A senior U.S. official mentioned that Iran would submit a written proposal on how to address U.S. concerns. President Trump called on Tehran on Wednesday to join the U.S. on the "path to peace," emphasizing, "They can’t have a nuclear weapon, it’s very simple. You can’t have peace in the Middle East if they have a nuclear weapon." The White House and Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the latest military planning revelations.
