With Canada currently recording one of the lowest birth rates globally, a new survey indicates that young Canadians would willingly achieve one of the highest fertility rates in the Western world if they felt able to do so. The findings come from the report "Home Alone" by Cardus, a non-partisan Christian think tank based in Ontario.
"The data suggest that for many Canadian women and men, achieving the family life they desire remains a challenge," the report states. The study, commissioned by Cardus and conducted by the Angus Reid Group last July, surveyed 3,000 Canadian adults. It found that among Canadians aged 18 to 44, women reported an ideal family size of 1.97 children on average, while men desired 2.13 children.
These figures stand in stark contrast to Canada's current fertility rate of just 1.25 children per woman. While ideal family size does not directly translate into the national fertility rate, the results indicate that Canadians would prefer a society where women have about two children each, but instead, the country is experiencing birth rates at only 60 percent of that level.
With approximately seven million Canadian women between 18 and 44, the gap between the current average of 1.25 children and the desired two children represents millions of missing babies. "Across most ethnic or linguistic groups, Canadians generally desire to have around two children," the report notes.
In 2024, Statistics Canada confirmed that the fertility rate had dropped to a record low of 1.25 children per woman, placing Canada among a small group of "ultra-low fertility" countries, including Italy (1.18), South Korea (0.75), and Japan (1.15). Conversely, if Canadians achieved their ideal fertility rate of two children per woman, Canada would become a statistical outlier among wealthy nations in terms of baby production. According to the latest World Bank data, a fertility rate of two would surpass the European Union (1.3), the United Kingdom (1.6), and even the United States (1.6).
This is the second time Cardus has published data showing a significant gap between actual births and the desired number of children. In 2023, when Canada's fertility rate was 1.4, a similar survey found that nearly half of Canadian women had smaller families than they would have liked.
