Calgary's Rapid Growth: A City on the Brink of Two Million Residents
Calgary is swiftly nearing a population of two million people, a milestone once deemed improbable just a decade ago. With a growth rate of nearly 20 percent over the past five years, the city faces critical questions about its readiness to handle this expansion. Mayor Jeromy Farkas, who highlighted this impending achievement during his election campaign, emphasizes that the next mayor will likely welcome the two-millionth resident, projected to arrive between 2029 and 2030 based on current trends.
Unprecedented Population Increases and Projections
According to provincial government data, Calgary's population has surged by almost 20 percent in the last five years, adding over 170,000 people in 2023 and 2024 alone. This brings the current estimated population within city limits to more than 1.6 million. While growth slowed slightly in 2025, the city remains on track to hit two million residents within the next five to ten years. Federal statistics from Statistics Canada indicate that Calgary's census metropolitan area has grown by 28 percent since 2014, solidifying its status as Canada's fastest-growing city.
Kathy Davies Murphy, Director of City and Regional Planning for Calgary, notes that the Calgary Plan, a new statutory document set for council review in June, will guide the city's growth strategy over the next three decades. This plan aims to consolidate development and transportation strategies, addressing the needs of a rapidly expanding urban center. Davies Murphy predicts that Calgary could reach two million people in five to ten years, with the metropolitan area, including surrounding communities like Airdrie and Cochrane, potentially hitting this milestone even sooner.
Factors Driving Calgary's Explosive Growth
University of Calgary political science professor Jack Lucas points out that Calgary's growth is not a new phenomenon but has accelerated recently due to several key factors. Net migration, rather than birth rates, is the primary driver, with the city attracting newcomers through its robust job market, particularly in the oil and gas industry, lower taxes, and relatively affordable housing compared to Toronto and Vancouver. Federal immigration policies under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which loosened restrictions post-2015, have also played a significant role, alongside provincial initiatives like the "Alberta is Calling" campaign launched in 2022 to attract skilled workers.
These elements have contributed to Alberta leading Canada in net migration, with the province's population increasing by over four percent in a single year from 2022 to 2023. StatCan data suggests Alberta may surpass British Columbia as the third most populous province within 25 years, further underscoring the region's appeal.
Challenges and Opportunities of Rapid Expansion
The rapid population growth has strained Calgary's infrastructure and services across multiple sectors. Housing has become a critical issue, with the city declaring a housing crisis in 2023 due to supply failing to keep pace with demand, leading to reduced vacancy rates and rising costs. Education systems are under pressure, as seen in the 2024 teachers' strike driven by bulging class sizes, with the Calgary Board of Education enrolling thousands of new students annually.
Emergency services are also feeling the impact. Calgary Fire Chief Steven Dongworth reports a 50 percent increase in call volume from 2020 to 2024, complicating response times as urban sprawl expands the city's footprint. Public recreation facilities, such as soccer fields, are in short supply, prompting campaigns for more investment. The city's infrastructure deficit, estimated at $8 billion, highlights the need for increased capital budgets to maintain and expand essential services.
Despite these challenges, growth presents significant opportunities. Davies Murphy highlights that becoming a two-million city elevates Calgary on the global stage, attracting new businesses and diversifying the economy. The technology sector, for instance, has seen employment grow by 61 percent between 2021 and 2024, creating over 64,000 jobs and positioning Calgary as a North American leader in tech growth.
Preparing for the Future
Mayor Farkas stresses that Calgary must proactively address growth to avoid crises. He views the population surge as a vote of confidence in the city's future but emphasizes the responsibility to ensure infrastructure and services can support both new and existing residents. The upcoming Calgary Plan will be crucial in balancing development with sustainable service delivery, aiming to create a city that meets the needs of all Calgarians.
As Calgary races toward two million, the focus remains on strategic planning and community collaboration to harness the benefits of growth while mitigating its strains. The city's ability to adapt will determine whether this milestone becomes an opportunity for prosperity or a challenge of unpreparedness.
