B.C. is often seen as an electricity powerhouse with abundant supply. But a different story has emerged at the B.C. Utilities Commission during a review of B.C. Hydro's latest long-term plan. B.C. Hydro acknowledged on March 2 that demand is rising faster than previously expected. This will require a further 2,700 gigawatt hours of electricity per year by 2030 and 500 megawatts of more dispatchable capacity than was anticipated just a few months ago to meet peak winter demand.
While 2030 might sound distant, it's a blink of an eye in the context of electrical utility planning, permitting and building. The $16-billion Site C dam, for example, was announced in 2010 but not fully operational until 2025.
The challenge isn't theoretical. B.C. Hydro has already been a net importer of electricity for three consecutive years, spending billions of dollars to bring record amounts of power into the province. A former commissioner with the utilities commission, Richard Mason has warned of possible supply shortfalls.
Meeting rising demand isn't just about adding more intermittent sources like wind power. We need to ensure electricity is available at the exact moment it's needed during winter cold snaps. Unfortunately, B.C. Hydro cautions these dispatchable options 'are currently more limited.'
Complicating matters, provincial policy is pushing electricity demand higher as noted in B.C. Hydro's recent filings. Chief among them: the push to electrify space heating by moving households off natural gas through changes to the building code (known as the zero carbon step code) and by restricting certain appliances.
Another push came when the utilities commission rejected plans to increase natural gas pipeline capacity in the Okanagan. This decision was based on the government's Clean B.C. policy, which calls for accelerated electrification and less use of natural gas. Now businesses in the Okanagan are worried about delays in getting electrical service for homes and offices.
The shift from gas to electricity for heating matters, because it loads demand onto the grid at exactly the moment it's already straining hardest — the coldest nights of the year. B.C.'s electric vehicle sales mandates just add further pressure, as noted by B.C. Hydro.
Relying on imports exposes British Columbians to volatile prices. And if our neighbours are also tapped out, it means electricity supply to some B.C. employers will have to be curtailed. Already, more than 7,000 megawatts of industrial demand is waiting for connection to the grid — representing billions of dollars in investment, thousands of jobs and millions in tax revenue sitting on the sidelines.
Against this backdrop, B.C. Hydro has asked for a delay in the review of their latest plan, citing a need to incorporate 'any material developments and related policy measures on new resource options.'
