A recent study published in the journal Nature reveals that a warming world will likely produce larger and more destructive hail. As climate change driven by fossil fuel combustion creates more high-energy unstable air conducive to hail formation, global storms that produce hail bigger than a large marble are expected to increase by 38% to 47% by the end of the century, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions. Conversely, storms generating smaller hail may decline by 4% to 8%, according to the research.
Economic Impact of Hail
While hail rarely causes fatalities, it is economically significant. Study co-author John Allen, a meteorology professor at Central Michigan University, noted that hail already costs the United States approximately $10 billion annually and around $80 billion globally. He emphasized that hail inflicts more damage than tornadoes and often surpasses the cost of several hurricanes in a year. Allen expressed concern that society is not adequately preparing for hail risks, stating, "We don't include this in our design standards for homes in the U.S. or internationally."
Bigger Stones Mean Bigger Problems
Allen's computer simulations indicate that the proportion of larger hailstones will grow with climate change. Larger stones weigh more and fall faster, striking with greater force. While small hail can damage crops, hail around 2 inches (5 centimeters) can cause major damage to vehicles, roofs, solar panels, and other infrastructure, according to Andreas Prein, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich who was not involved in the study. A single hole from a hailstone can be patched, but multiple large stones often necessitate a full roof replacement.
Mechanisms Behind Larger Hail
The study explains that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor—about 4% more per degree Fahrenheit (7% per degree Celsius). This increases the energy available for storms, leading to stronger updrafts capable of producing hail. However, warmer air also reduces the cold layer aloft, causing smaller hailstones to melt more readily while larger ones survive. Previous research largely focused on hail frequency in the U.S. and lacked the three-dimensional modeling used in this new study, which also examined global patterns.
Global Hail Problem
Regions such as Argentina, Europe, Canada, and the U.S. Northern Plains are likely to see the biggest increase in large hail, while parts of the tropics may experience a reduction due to melting of smaller stones. Allen emphasized that hail is not just a U.S. problem, noting that global hail losses have been spiraling in recent years. The study analyzed hail larger and smaller than 1.2 inches (30 millimeters) in diameter—about the size of a U.S. 50-cent coin—under three emissions scenarios. In a moderately optimistic scenario, large hail increases by 38%; in a more pessimistic scenario with nearly 2°F (1°C) additional warming, large hail jumps by 47%.
Walker Ashley, a Northern Illinois meteorology professor not involved in the study, called the findings a "meaningful climate signal." However, he noted that disaster losses are driven not only by the peril itself but also by human factors such as population growth, building practices, and land use changes. As more people and infrastructure move into hail-prone areas, risk and damage will increase regardless of climate change.
