Social media feeds have recently been flooded with headlines suggesting a dramatic decline in people identifying as transgender across North America. These claims specifically reference two studies that some commentators are using to support a long-standing theory: that fewer young people are embracing transgender identities.
The Problematic Studies Behind the Headlines
The first analysis generating significant attention comes from professor Eric Kaufmann, described by Vox as a "liberal national conservative." His recent report, titled "The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans," claims that trans identity peaked in 2023 before dropping dramatically from 7% to 4% among university students.
The second dataset frequently cited originates from Tufts University's Cooperative Election Study, which found an approximately two-point decrease in people identifying as transgender.
Critical Flaws in Kaufmann's Research
Upon closer examination, Kaufmann's report reveals significant limitations that undermine its conclusions. First, the surveys he references primarily polled students from Ivy League schools and large research universities, creating a sample that hardly represents the broader American population.
More importantly, the surveys asked participants whether they "identified as neither male nor female," which specifically measures nonbinary identity rather than transgender identity. This represents a fundamental misunderstanding of gender terminology. While nonbinary people can identify as transgender, not all trans people identify as nonbinary. A trans woman, for instance, identifies specifically as a woman.
According to the Williams Institute, approximately one-fourth of trans people identify as nonbinary, meaning the majority do not fall into this category. The surveys in Kaufmann's report asked about male, female, or nonbinary identification but didn't inquire whether participants identified as cisgender or transgender.
Issues with the Tufts University Data
The Tufts University study appears more informed about gender expression, directly asking college-aged students if they identified as transgender. Their data showed a decline from 5.5% in 2021 to just over 3% in 2024.
However, researchers have criticized this survey for failing to include a margin of error. The percentage points are so close together that the results could be statistically insignificant, rendering the supposed decline potentially meaningless from a scientific perspective.
The Political Context and Broader Trends
Even if fewer young people were identifying as transgender currently, the political climate provides compelling explanation. Conservative attacks on the trans community have intensified over recent years, creating legitimate safety concerns.
In 2023, the Trevor Project surveyed trans Americans and found that 94% felt less safe than in previous years. The situation has continued deteriorating, highlighted by a recent Supreme Court decision requiring trans people to list their gender assigned at birth on passports.
Meanwhile, most comprehensive surveys focusing on the overall American population show continuing growth in trans identification. A Gallup poll documented an increase from 0.9% in 2023 to 1.3% in 2024 among people identifying as transgender. Similarly, the Williams Institute found that trans identity among people aged 13-27 continues growing.
These studies with their methodological limitations appear driven by a political agenda of queer erasure rather than scientific rigor. As the political landscape evolves, we can hope for an environment where more trans people feel safe to identify openly.
