As 2025 draws to a close, the head of one of Canada's leading real estate firms has outlined the key forces that will shape the nation's housing landscape in the coming year. Philip Soper, the CEO of Royal LePage, provided a detailed analysis in a recent interview with BNN Bloomberg, recapping the trends of the past year and projecting the outlook for 2026.
The Trio of Factors Defining the 2026 Market
According to Soper, three major interconnected factors are poised to significantly influence the Canadian housing market in 2026: international trade tariffs, shifts in immigration policy, and ongoing softness in the condominium segment. He emphasized that these elements do not operate in isolation but create a complex web of cause and effect that will determine affordability, supply, and demand across the country.
Soper highlighted that potential tariffs, particularly those affecting key materials like softwood lumber, could directly increase construction costs. This comes at a time when provincial leaders, such as the Premier of New Brunswick, are publicly calling for a swift resolution to trade disputes to protect their economies and, by extension, housing affordability.
Immigration and Condo Market Dynamics
The second critical factor is the trajectory of immigration policy. Soper noted that immigration has been a primary driver of population growth and housing demand in recent years. Any substantive shift in federal immigration targets or programs could alter demand dynamics, especially in major urban centres that are primary destinations for newcomers.
This is directly tied to the third factor: continued softness in the condo market. Soper pointed out that condominiums, often the entry point for first-time buyers and a popular choice in dense urban areas, have shown vulnerability. This segment's performance in 2026 will be a crucial barometer for overall market health, particularly in cities like Toronto and Vancouver where condo construction has been prolific.
Looking Back to Move Forward
In his conversation, Soper also took stock of the year that was, 2025. He reflected on how the market navigated high-interest rates, economic uncertainty, and regional variations. This context is vital for understanding the baseline from which the 2026 trends will emerge.
The Royal LePage CEO's analysis suggests that stakeholders—from policymakers and builders to buyers and sellers—must pay close attention to these macro forces. The interplay between trade policy, demographic changes, and specific housing segment performance will create distinct challenges and opportunities in different regions of Canada.
As the new year approaches, Soper's insights provide a framework for understanding the potential headwinds and tailwinds for Canadian real estate. The market's direction in 2026 will likely hinge on how these three pivotal factors evolve in the coming months.
