Edmonton's Housing Market Enters a Period of Rebalancing After Record Years
Alberta's residential housing market is experiencing a noticeable slowdown, according to recent economic forecasts, but industry leaders emphasize this represents a return to more typical conditions rather than a dramatic collapse. The shift follows two consecutive record-breaking years for housing starts across the province.
Economic Forecast Points to Normalization
At BILD Edmonton Metro's 2026 economic forecast dinner held in February at the Fairmont Hotel Macdonald, key financial experts presented their analysis to a sold-out audience of over 200 attendees. The event featured insights from Catherine Rothrock, chief economist for the Government of Alberta; Felicia Mutheardy, the City of Edmonton's chief economist; and Angus Watt, senior wealth advisor at National Bank.
"Things are balancing," said Charles Fay, vice-president of Edmonton single family for Jayman Built. "There's nothing saying that they're crashing, things are not going to stop or any of that."
The experts noted that while Canada has managed to weather global economic changes reasonably well—including tariff pressures from the United States—uncertainty and slower growth are expected in the coming period.
Record Housing Starts Precede Expected Slowdown
The anticipated slowdown comes after Alberta delivered a second consecutive record year for housing starts in 2025, breaking several all-time records. Despite Alberta comprising less than 12 percent of Canada's population, the province accounted for nearly a quarter of all housing starts across the country last year and more than 80 percent of starts across the Prairie region.
In Edmonton specifically, 2025 housing starts reached 21,337 units, representing a 16 percent increase from the 18,334 units recorded in 2024. Calgary experienced similar growth, with 27,684 starts in 2025 compared to 24,396 the previous year—a 14 percent increase.
"Even with a bit of a slowdown, we're still delivering more housing than we had in the average years over the last decade," said Paul Lanni, president and CEO of Averton, a home builder and developer. "So, I think we were expecting things to slow down."
Market Adjustment Rather Than Collapse
Industry professionals characterize the current market shift as a rebalancing rather than a precipitous decline. Fay explained that a significant portion of recent construction, particularly in single-family homes, involved speculative building that hasn't yet been fully absorbed by the market.
"A large chunk, especially the single family, was a speculative build so that hasn't been absorbed yet and so because of that there has to be a slowdown as that gets absorbed," said Fay, who suggested prices might adjust downward by approximately five to ten percent. "It's not plummeting, it's just again, rebalancing."
This adjustment period means prices for new housing are currently at what many consider a favorable equilibrium point. Lanni echoed this perspective, stating his belief that the housing market is shifting back toward more balanced conditions after the exceptional activity of recent years.
The consensus among industry leaders suggests that while the breakneck pace of construction may moderate, Alberta's housing market remains fundamentally healthy as it transitions to more sustainable levels of activity.
