A Nanos Research Group poll for Bloomberg News reveals that 60% of Canadians believe Prime Minister Mark Carney has done a very good or good job managing the economy, even though his first year in office has seen the worst economic growth for a new prime minister since at least 1963.
Poll results show strong endorsement despite weak GDP
The poll, conducted in early July 2026, found that 24% of respondents rated Carney's economic performance as poor or very poor, while 14% considered it average, and 2% were unsure. This represents a robust endorsement of Carney's stewardship amid challenging conditions.
According to the data, real gross domestic product has contracted by 0.05% since Carney took office, marking the weakest debut for a Canadian prime minister in over six decades. For comparison, Stephen Harper's first year (2006-2007) saw 1.4% growth, and Justin Trudeau's (2015-2016) achieved 1.7%.
Factors behind the economic slowdown
Carney maintained his predecessor's tighter immigration policies, which sharply reduced non-permanent resident arrivals and dampened growth. He also assumed office as trade tensions with the United States—Canada's largest export market—intensified. US President Donald Trump's tariffs and threats have weighed on business investment and crimped many non-energy exports. Consumer spending and the housing market have weakened, and back-to-back quarterly contractions in GDP have occurred, though most economists and the Bank of Canada have not labeled this a recession.
Canadians blame external factors
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, explained the apparent disconnect: “The uncertainty in the Canada–US relationship — largely driven by Trump’s negotiation strategy — has likely diverted attention from the Carney government to the Trump administration. At this time they’re getting a pass on the state of Canada’s finances and stewardship of the economy.”
The polling data suggest Canadians are attributing the country's economic woes to global factors rather than Carney himself.
Political attacks not resonating
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized Carney's economic record, calling him “badly educated” in economics despite his degrees from Harvard and Oxford and his experience leading two central banks. Poilievre argues Carney was wrong on major issues such as post-pandemic inflation and has been slow to approve major resource projects. However, the survey indicates his criticisms are not resonating with most Canadians.
Affordability relief may help Carney
Weaker-than-potential growth has reduced demand-driven inflation pressure. The yearly change in the consumer price index has hovered near the Bank of Canada's 2% target for most of Carney's tenure, excluding a recent spike from rising global energy prices. This affordability relief may be bolstering Carney's political standing.
