Canadians are feeling a sharp pinch at the coffee counter, with prices for their daily brew skyrocketing well beyond the national rate of food inflation. New data reveals the cost of coffee has surged by more than a quarter compared to last year, with some types seeing increases of over one-third.
By the Numbers: A Steep Climb for Coffee Lovers
A recent RBC analysis shows that between 2024 and November 2025, coffee prices in Canada jumped by almost 28 per cent. This dramatic rise starkly contrasts with the overall year-over-year food inflation rate of just 4.2 per cent.
Statistics Canada provides a detailed breakdown, showing the pain is not evenly distributed across all coffee types. The increase was sharper for roasted or ground coffee, which soared by 35.2 per cent. The rise was somewhat lower, though still significant, for instant and other coffee varieties, which increased by 19.7 per cent.
The long-term trend is equally telling. Since 2010, the average Canadian household's annual expenditure on coffee has climbed dramatically, from $64 to $169, according to StatCan. This increase hits hard in a nation renowned for its coffee habit; a Remitly study indicates 72 per cent of Canadians drink coffee every day, making Canada the top coffee-consuming country per capita outside of Europe.
The Root Causes: Climate Chaos and Global Demand
Experts point to a perfect storm of factors brewing in the global "bean belt"—the equatorial region where most of the world's coffee is grown. Dry weather in Brazil and Vietnam, two of the world's largest producers, has severely curbed coffee production and exports, as noted in the RBC report.
Sylvain Charlebois, senior director of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, has witnessed the challenges firsthand. After visiting Brazil and Colombia in recent months, he reported a significant lack of production due to insufficient sun and early frost. Coffee cultivation relies on predictable climate patterns, which have become increasingly volatile.
"Brazil and Colombia have also faced intense droughts, rising temperatures, and volatile weather conditions," Charlebois explained. This environmental stress leads to reduced yields and harvesting difficulties, tightening global supplies and pushing prices upward. The impact at the source is staggering: Charlebois notes the "farmgate price"—what farmers receive before retail—has exploded by 266 per cent in just five years.
Compounding the supply issue is a seismic shift in global demand. Charlebois attributes part of the price hike to a significant increase in coffee consumption across Asia, where it is becoming the beverage of choice for many middle-class families over tea. Data from Coffee Intelligence supports this, showing Asian coffee consumption up almost 15 per cent since 2018, with China's consumption growing by nearly 150 per cent in the past decade.
No Relief in Sight for Canadian Consumers
While temporary factors like recently dropped tariffs between Canada and the U.S. provided some minor market fluctuations, the core drivers of high prices are structural and climate-related. Charlebois offers a sobering outlook for Canadian coffee drinkers, suggesting they should not expect prices to drop any time soon.
"I think we’re going to be facing some production headwinds for a while," he stated, indicating that the climate challenges disrupting key growing regions are likely to persist. For a nation of daily coffee drinkers, adapting to this new, more expensive reality may be the only option on the table.
