Quebec's population is projected to decline until 2029 before beginning to stabilize, according to a new report from the province's statistics agency. The forecast, released on July 10, 2026, marks a significant shift from previous growth trends and highlights demographic challenges facing the province.
Population decline driven by low birth rates and migration
The Institut de la statistique du Québec projects that the province's population will decrease by approximately 0.2% annually over the next three years. The decline is primarily attributed to declining birth rates and changes in international and interprovincial migration patterns. Quebec's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, currently sitting at around 1.6, according to the agency.
"The combination of lower fertility and shifting migration flows is expected to result in a modest population decline over the medium term," said a spokesperson for the institute. "However, we anticipate that the population will stabilize by 2029 as these trends moderate."
Implications for economy and public services
The projected population decline has significant implications for Quebec's economy and public services. A shrinking workforce could exacerbate labor shortages in key sectors such as healthcare, construction, and technology. The province's aging population will also place increased demands on pension and healthcare systems.
Economists have warned that sustained population decline could reduce economic growth and tax revenues, potentially impacting funding for public programs. "Quebec needs to adapt its policies to address these demographic shifts," said Pierre Fortin, an economist at the University of Quebec. "This may include measures to boost fertility, attract more immigrants, and increase labor force participation among under-represented groups."
Government response and policy options
The Quebec government has acknowledged the challenges posed by the population decline and is exploring policy responses. In recent years, the province has increased its immigration targets and introduced incentives for families, such as subsidized childcare and parental leave benefits. However, experts argue that more comprehensive strategies are needed.
"The population projection underscores the need for a multi-faceted approach," said Julie Caron, a demographer at the University of Montreal. "Policies that support work-life balance, encourage higher birth rates, and facilitate the integration of newcomers will be crucial in stabilizing the population."
The institute's report also notes that Quebec's population decline is part of a broader trend in several developed regions, including parts of Europe and Asia. The province's experience may offer insights for other jurisdictions facing similar demographic challenges.
