The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs are understandably focused on their battle for the NBA title. However, for the other 28 teams, this month is all about preparing for the draft. Teams spend countless hours analyzing the draft and lottery, often planning how to lose games efficiently rather than winning. The tanking issue drew so much criticism that the NBA decided to address it more aggressively.
Key Changes to the NBA Lottery
Several reforms were announced late last week, with a 29-1 vote, the Memphis Grizzlies being the lone dissenter. Starting in 2027, the annual lottery will include 16 teams instead of 14. A new "3-2-1" system will allocate three, two, or one lottery balls to each of the 16 teams. Teams that do not qualify for the play-in tournament or playoffs will receive three lottery balls each, except the three worst regular-season records, which will be "draft relegated" and receive only two balls each. These teams can now fall as far as 12th, with the worst three having only 5.4% odds each of landing the first pick, down from 14%.
Additional Reforms
Teams are now barred from selecting first overall in consecutive drafts. No team will be allowed a top-five pick in three consecutive drafts, a move seemingly aimed at preventing dynasties like the Spurs' potential run with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. The Memphis Grizzlies voted against the changes because they valued a 2027 pick from Utah, which could now be less valuable. Teams will also no longer be able to protect picks in trades from 12 to 15. The lottery teams will pick in reverse order in the second round. This system will be tested in 2027, 2028, and 2029.
Impact on the Toronto Raptors
The Toronto Raptors are one of the few teams that control each of their next seven first-round draft picks. This already gave them an advantage, but now first-rounders have more value due to the lottery reform. The draft will be more random, increasing the chances that any given first-rounder could be first overall. Toronto can trade up to four future firsts to land a superstar to pair with Scottie Barnes. If the team takes a step back in 2026-27 or 2028-29, they might have 5.4% odds at the top pick, or 8.4% if they miss the play-in. This positions the Raptors better compared to the old system. An unintended consequence is that some superteams, like the Spurs and Thunder, also benefit from the changes.
