One draft lottery, three Maple Leafs scenarios
That is what it will come down to on Tuesday night when the National Hockey League conducts its annual live drawing of the lottery balls. Each potential outcome for the Leafs, who currently hold the fifth pick in the 2026 draft after a season of significant underachievement, will have a distinct impact on the team's future when the balls are revealed at the NHL Network's studio in Secaucus, New Jersey.
Moving up to select first or second
If the Leafs move up to the first or second pick, they will have the opportunity to choose between two wingers who have distinguished themselves in this draft class: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg. Either player would slot in nicely alongside captain Auston Matthews as a franchise winger. The new front office, reportedly to be led by Mats Sundin and John Chayka as general manager, would be handed an excellent start. The Leafs have an 8.5% chance to win the lottery and pick first, and an 8.6% chance to get the second selection.
Staying at number five
If the Leafs remain at No. 5, they could select a top defenceman such as Chase Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels, or Alberts Smits, each of whom is projected to become a top-pairing defenseman in the NHL. Alternatively, centre Caleb Malhotra could provide strength down the middle. The Leafs have a 24.5% chance of maintaining the fifth pick. Since 2000, most players selected fifth overall have gone on to have productive NHL careers, including Thomas Vanek, Blake Wheeler, Phil Kessel, and Morgan Rielly.
Falling out of the top five
The nightmare scenario involves the Leafs dropping to sixth (44% chance) or seventh (14.2% chance), which would give the Boston Bruins a stronger draft position thanks to a previous trade. The Bruins already have centre Fraser Minten from the trade that sent defenceman Brandon Carlo to Toronto. Losing the pick would be a tough blow, especially considering the Leafs also traded their 2027 first-round pick to the Philadelphia Flyers. If the Leafs keep the pick this year, they will not have their own first-round pick in 2027 or 2028, though they acquired a top-10 protected 2027 first-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche.
