Ontario PC Lead Narrows as Liberals Gain Ground in Latest Poll
Public opposition to recent provincial policy changes is being blamed for a significant loss in support for the Doug Ford Conservative government, according to new polling data released this week. The latest numbers from Liaison Strategies show the Progressive Conservatives' lead is continuing to narrow, with the governing PCs now garnering just 39% support—a mere three percentage points ahead of the Ontario Liberals.
Polling Details and Methodology
The poll was conducted between March 27 and March 29, 2026, surveying a sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. The results carry a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin noted that while the PCs remain ahead this month, their lead continues to shrink and they have now fallen below the 40% threshold.
"The PCs are still ahead this month, but their lead continues to narrow and they are now below 40%," said Valentin. "At 39%, they are just one point above their lowest level we have ever recorded, which was 38%."
Regional Breakdown of Support
Provincially, the Ontario NDP managed to secure 18% support, while the Green party trailed with just 5%. The Tories enjoy their strongest support in Eastern Ontario, where they command 46% of voter intention compared to the Liberals. However, the Greater Toronto Area remains firmly in the grip of the Ontario Liberals, who enjoy 40% support in the 905 regions and 44% in the 416 area code.
In contrast, the PCs have 38% support in the 905s and 34% in the 416. The only area where the Ontario NDP show any significant support is in south-central Ontario, where their 35% support lags just behind the Tories' 36% but matches the Liberals' 35%.
Approval Ratings and Public Sentiment
Despite the narrowing lead in voter intention, Ontarians who believe Queen's Park is on the right track increased by two points, with Ford's approval rating likewise gaining a percentage point. Valentin cautioned that all of these shifts, including the change in vote intention, remain within the margin of error.
"Whether they continue moving up or down will only become clear with time," he noted.
Nevertheless, 61% of those polled still feel Ontario isn't moving in the right direction, compared to the 33% who do and 6% who weren't sure. When asked specifically about Ford's performance as premier, 31% said they approve, while 65% said they don't.
Controversial Policies and Public Reaction
The Ford government's decision earlier this year to "retire" public-facing metrics that track patients treated in "unconventional spaces" such as hospital hallways proved particularly controversial. Despite government claims that the changes were being made to modernize statistical collection and that data would still be collected internally, 70% of those polled said the government should continue reporting these statistics to the public.
Only 15% said internal monitoring is sufficient, while another 15% couldn't make up their minds. Similarly, legislation that exempts the Premier and Cabinet Ministers from freedom of information requests fell with a thud among Ontarians, with 65% of those polled opposed to the exemptions, compared to 21% who said they support them.
Political Implications
The narrowing gap between the PCs and Liberals suggests growing public discontent with recent policy directions. While the Conservatives maintain a slight advantage, their support has dipped to concerning levels as the opposition parties gain momentum. The coming months will reveal whether this trend represents a temporary fluctuation or a more significant shift in Ontario's political landscape.
