Doug Ford's Fiscal Rhetoric Clashes with Ontario's Economic Reality
During his successful 2018 election campaign and initial years in office, Ontario Premier Doug Ford portrayed himself as a bold fiscal reformer. He pledged to tackle what he termed "reckless" spending, declared eliminating the deficit a "moral imperative," and explicitly promised to reduce key income tax rates for both residents and businesses. However, an analysis of his tenure reveals a stark disconnect between these promises and the actual outcomes.
Spending Increases Under Ford's Leadership
Before assuming power, Ford and his team frequently criticized the spending habits of the previous Kathleen Wynne administration, vowing significant changes. In practice, spending has risen under Premier Ford, exceeding adjustments for population growth and inflation. This upward trend contradicts his campaign commitments to fiscal restraint.
Persistent Deficits and Growing Debt
Ford's time in office has been marked by consistent budget deficits, with only one exception in 2021/22 due to pandemic-related revenue surges. Projections indicate another deficit in the upcoming spring budget. Ontario's government debt has ballooned from $337.6 billion in 2018/19 to a projected $458.6 billion in 2025/26. While the debt-to-economy ratio has slightly decreased since Ford took office, government forecasts suggest this progress will largely reverse in the coming years, undermining his pledge to substantially reduce the debt burden.
Unfulfilled Tax Reduction Promises
In 2018, candidate Ford vowed to lower personal income tax rates and the general business income tax rate to make "Ontario open for business." Since becoming premier, Ford has not implemented these reductions, leaving key tax rates unchanged. This failure further highlights the gap between his rhetoric and record.
Opportunities for Change in Upcoming Budget
Given this track record, Ontarians may understandably be skeptical of future fiscal promises from the Ford government. The upcoming budget presents another chance to fulfill long-standing commitments. A proposed "tax action plan" could finally deliver the promised income tax relief. Additionally, freezing or reducing spending—rather than allowing it to climb—could help eliminate the deficit quickly. Potential savings include reviewing government-sector wages, which are 7.9% higher on average than private-sector wages in Ontario, and cutting business subsidies that allocate billions to favored firms.
Continuity with Previous Administration
Nearly eight years after Ford's election, Ontario's fiscal landscape resembles that of the Wynne era: higher spending, elevated tax rates, ongoing deficits, and only modest debt improvement. If the government chooses to adopt the policies it originally advocated, this record could still shift. Yet, the contrast between candidate Ford's reform-oriented promises and Premier Ford's fiscal outcomes remains a defining aspect of Ontario's economic policy in this period.
Ben Eisen is a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and co-author of "Ford vs. Ford: Fiscal Rhetoric vs. Outcomes in Ontario under Doug Ford."
