In 2018, François Legault achieved the impossible by becoming premier of Quebec at the head of a new party, the Coalition Avenir Québec. This coalition of former Parti Québécois, Liberal, and Action Démocratique du Québec members promised to reform the Quebec model and defend Quebec identity beyond the old federalist-sovereigntist divides. Nearly eight years later, Legault is no longer premier, and his party sits third in the polls, yet centre-right nationalism is more popular than ever in Quebec.
High expectations led to sharp disappointment
What happened? Expectations for this new government, which promised to break the mold to do more and better, were high. That likely explains why the disappointment was all the more brutal during its second mandate.
The CAQ's reformist appeal historically came from its critical stance toward Quebec's social democracy, which it promised to renovate. In power, the CAQ cut income tax, the school tax, and capped state fee increases at 3 per cent per year, slowing the ever-greater capture of taxpayers' income. But the promised structural changes never materialized.
Interventionist approach hits a wall
Instead, the government hit a wall due to its refusal to challenge the interventionist approach in place since the Quiet Revolution. By trying to pick winners and bet big on the battery sector, the CAQ made unpopular investments in companies like Northvolt and Autobus Lion, which later collapsed. Although not representative of the whole, these cases became symbols of excessive state involvement in the economy. Combined with large deficits and a growing public service, they created genuine political demand to reduce the size of the Quebec government.
On identity, the CAQ shocked the bien-pensants in 2018 by denouncing immigration thresholds that were too high and promising to reduce numbers—something no governing party had done in recent memory. In its first mandate, Bill 21 on state secularism and Bill 96 on French-language protection, whatever one thinks of them, revived Quebec nationalism and showed that identity affirmation remained possible in the current constitutional dead end.
Immigration: a mixed record
On immigration, the picture is more mixed. While permanent thresholds remained low, temporary immigration exploded, rising from about 150,000 in 2018 to over 500,000 in 2026. Although the federal government, especially under Justin Trudeau, shares responsibility for this failure, the drastic increase in immigration attracted criticism, particularly from nationalists who voted twice for the CAQ hoping to reduce arrivals in Quebec—without success.
The party now faces a curious paradox. Its more right-wing ideas, which the media described as corrosive in 2018, are now more popular than ever, partly because of its difficulties in implementing them. Eight years later, the Coalition Avenir Québec managed to create political demand for centre-right nationalism, but it is not reaping the benefits.
