In 2018, François Legault achieved the impossible by becoming Premier of Quebec with a new party, the Coalition Avenir Québec. This coalition of former PQ, Liberal, and ADQ members promised to reform Quebec’s tired social democracy and to defend its cultural identity, transcending the old divisions between federalists and sovereignists. Nearly eight years later, Legault is no longer premier, and his party ranks third in the polls, but centre-right nationalism is more popular than ever in Quebec.
What went wrong for the CAQ?
Expectations for this new government, which promised to break the mold to do more and do better, were high. For this reason, the disappointment was all the more brutal during its second term. The CAQ’s appeal as a reformist party historically stemmed from its critical stance toward Quebec social democracy, which it promised to overhaul. Once in power, the CAQ lowered income taxes, school taxes and capped annual increases in government fees at 3 per cent, curbing the ever-increasing drain on taxpayers’ incomes. But the promised structural changes never materialized.
On the contrary, the government hit a wall due to its refusal to challenge the interventionist approach in place since the Quiet Revolution. By attempting to pick winners and betting big on the electric battery sector, the CAQ made unpopular investments in companies like Northvolt and Autobus Lion, which subsequently went under. Although not representative of the whole, these cases have become symbols of the state’s excessive involvement in the economy. Combined with significant deficits and a substantial rise in the size of the civil service, they have created a genuine political demand to reduce the size of government.
Nationalist promises and immigration challenges
The CAQ also shocked the political establishment in 2018 by criticizing excessively high immigration quotas and promising to reduce them, something no governing party had done in recent memory. During its first term, Bill 21 on religious symbols and Bill 96 on the protection of the French language, whatever one may think of them, reinvigorated Quebec nationalism and demonstrated that defending its cultural identity was possible despite the current constitutional impasse.
On immigration, the picture is more mixed. While permanent immigration quotas have remained low, temporary immigration has skyrocketed, rising from approximately 150,000 in 2018 to over 500,000 in 2026. While the federal government, particularly under Justin Trudeau, shares responsibility for this failure, this drastic increase in immigration has drawn its share of criticism, particularly from nationalists who voted twice for the CAQ in the hope of reducing arrivals in Quebec, without success.
Paradox of rising popularity for centre-right ideas
The party now finds itself facing a curious paradox. Its more right-wing ideas, which some media described as divisive in 2018, are now more popular than ever… partly because of its difficulties in implementing them. Eight years later, the Coalition Avenir Québec has managed to create political demand for centre-right nationalism, but it is not reaping the benefits. According to Étienne A. Beauregard, writing for the National Post, the CAQ won the battle of ideas but lost its voters, as rival parties now stand to benefit from the political shift it helped create.
