A recent survey conducted by Pollara Strategic Insights has revealed that support for Alberta's separation from Canada has reached its highest level in at least five years. The findings indicate a significant shift in public sentiment, with 27 percent of decided voters in Alberta now stating they would vote for the province to become an independent nation. This marks a notable seven-point increase from December 2025 and represents a record high since Pollara began tracking independence support among Albertans.
Growing Momentum for Separation
Beyond the core 27 percent, an additional 15 percent of respondents indicated they might vote to separate as a means to "send a message to Ottawa." This suggests that as many as 42 percent of voters could potentially align with separatist causes in an independence referendum, highlighting a substantial base of discontent. The poll's timing coincides with increasing political tensions, making a fall independence referendum appear more plausible than in previous years.
Political Mainstreaming of Separatist Sentiment
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, attributes the rising numbers to the normalization of separation talk within Alberta's political circles. "A lot of voters do take their lead from political leaders, and if they give approval, or at least tacit approval, of separatism, I think it makes the position a lot more acceptable," Arnold explained. This observation is underscored by actions such as United Conservative Party MLA Jason Stephan publicly endorsing a referendum in a late March op-ed, though he has not clarified his personal stance on separation itself.
Further illustrating the political divide, no UCP MLAs have signed a pledge of loyalty to Canada circulated by Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi. This reluctance signals a growing acceptance of separatist discourse among conservative lawmakers, potentially fueling broader public support.
Complex National Attachments
Despite the surge in separatist sentiment, the poll also uncovered a paradox: 84 percent of Albertans expressed pride in being Canadian, an increase from 2022. Interestingly, 58 percent of those who would vote to separate also identified as proud Canadians. Arnold suggests this reflects a complex mix of emotions toward Ottawa and external influences, noting, "I think U.S. President Donald Trump is still a factor here. His provocations seem to be spurring a sort of defensive nationalism, in both Alberta and other parts of Canada."
Arnold added that the idea of Alberta as an independent country consistently polls higher than the notion of joining the United States as the 51st state, indicating a preference for sovereignty over annexation.
Demographic and Political Breakdown
The poll revealed distinct patterns in support across different groups. Rural Albertans and UCP supporters showed stronger separatist leanings, with 55 percent of UCP voters and 33 percent of those living outside Calgary and Edmonton stating they would vote to separate. Men aged 35 to 49 emerged as the most pro-separation demographic, with three in ten advocating for Alberta to become its own country.
Context of Federal-Provincial Tensions
These findings arrive amid strained relations between Alberta and the federal government. The Alberta-Ottawa memorandum of understanding on energy, once hailed by Premier Danielle Smith as evidence that Canada still works, is now faltering. Negotiators missed major deadlines on April 1, putting the agreement officially behind schedule and exacerbating frustrations that may be contributing to the rise in separatist sentiment.
As separation talk becomes more mainstream, the poll underscores a pivotal moment in Alberta's political landscape, with implications for national unity and provincial autonomy. The data suggests that what was once a fringe idea is gaining traction, driven by political leadership, demographic shifts, and ongoing tensions with Ottawa.
