Both Canada and the United States have rolled back their welcome mats for international students, implementing stricter visa policies that are shrinking enrolment numbers and putting pressure on university budgets and future talent pools.
Sharp Declines in Enrolment
The United States, still the top global host of international students, saw a 17 per cent drop in new international student enrolments last year, with the steepest declines at the graduate level. The Institute of International Education's Spring 2026 Snapshot reported that international applications fell for 59 per cent of U.S. institutions, and 63 per cent expected a further decline in autumn 2026. Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA: the Association of International Educators, anticipated a drop of up to 30 per cent in 2026.
In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney said in June that international student arrivals had dropped 60 per cent due to new caps. Overall study permit holders dipped from about one million to just under one million, but applications fell nearly 30 per cent between 2024 and 2025, according to Larissa Bezo, president and CEO of the Canadian Bureau for International Education. Permit-approval rates also fell from roughly 60 per cent in 2023 to the mid-30s to low-40 per cents by the end of last year, pointing to smaller incoming cohorts.
Policy Changes Driving the Decline
Loren Locke, a business immigration attorney and former U.S. Department of State consular officer, cited multiple U.S. policy shifts: “Since 2025, the State Department has layered mandatory social-media vetting onto every student visa applicant; paused and then thinned out interview appointments; and abruptly revoked hundreds of current students’ visas. Each of those alone would give a prospective student pause.”
In Canada, Ottawa lowered resident permits after years of soaring admissions, creating a perception that the country had closed its door. “There’s a perception that Canada had kind of closed its door to students because of the decision to put a ceiling on the number of students that would be welcomed,” Bezo said.
Visa Issuance and Other Barriers
U.S. visa application concerns and travel restrictions were the top factors cited by schools reporting declines, according to the IIE. Department of State data showed a 36 per cent decline in student visas for 2025. “Among the things that students would consider the biggest barrier is the visa issuance first,” said Aw. “Many from places like China, India, and many other countries are reporting that they’re not even able to get visa appointments to apply for a student visa to come for the fall.”
Other factors include anti-immigration rhetoric from the Trump administration, threats to eliminate Optional Practical Training (which allows students to work in the U.S. for a year), and moves to end the “Duration of Status” for students, capping it at four years instead of allowing them to stay for the length of their studies.
Impact on Universities and Talent
The declining numbers are hurting university budgets, as international students often pay higher tuition fees. The loss also threatens the talent pipeline, as many international graduates contribute to innovation and the workforce. Aw noted, “I think international students are getting the message that the U.S. is not a welcoming place given all the difficulties and challenges of getting visas and everything else.”
