Poll Reveals NDP's Steep Climb Under New Leader Avi Lewis
Avi Lewis, the newly-elected leader of the federal New Democratic Party, faces a daunting challenge in convincing Canadians of his party's relevance, according to a recent poll. Despite his convincing victory at the NDP convention in Winnipeg on March 29, 2026, the broader electorate remains skeptical about the left-leaning party's significance in Canadian politics.
Poll Numbers Paint Grim Picture
The Postmedia-Leger poll, conducted between March 27 and 30 as NDP supporters gathered to choose their new leader, found that only 32% of respondents believe the NDP is relevant. In contrast, 42% said the party is not relevant, while 26% were unsure about its significance. These numbers highlight the steep hill Lewis must climb to rebuild the party's national standing.
Andrew Enns, Leger's executive vice-president, noted that the latest results provide further evidence of the NDP's declining support over recent years. "The agreement with the Liberals seemed to affect NDP support," Enns explained, referring to the 2022 deal where the NDP agreed to support Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government on key votes in exchange for action on dental care, pharmacare, and affordability measures.
Support Numbers Tell Troubling Story
The poll reveals the NDP currently commands just 6% of voter support, a marginal increase of one percentage point from early March but significantly behind the governing Liberals at 48% and the Conservatives at 34%. Even more concerning for the NDP is that it trails behind the Bloc Québécois, which sits at 7% despite running candidates in only one province. The Green Party remains at 3% support.
"Some voters viewed Jagmeet Singh's party as a 'subsidiary' of the Liberals," Enns observed about the previous leadership. "It kept them on the sidelines." This perception appears to have contributed to the party's decline from consistent polling between 15% and 20% since late 2021 to its current low standing.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
The NDP's decline in the polls coincides with last year's inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who almost immediately after taking office began threatening Canada's economy and sovereignty. The party was supported by 16% of Canadians near the end of January 2025, indicating a significant drop in just over a year.
Perhaps the most immediate challenge for Lewis and the NDP is that 57% of Canadians are satisfied with the federal government's performance, according to the new Leger poll, compared to 34% who express dissatisfaction. Additionally, a majority (58%) approve of Prime Minister Mark Carney's performance, while 33% disapprove.
Expert Analysis on Leadership Transition
Lori Turnbull, a political scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, noted that political parties often experience quick gains in the polls after electing a new leader, but it remains uncertain whether this will happen with the NDP under Lewis. "Lewis needs to build support within his caucus and throughout the national party as first steps," Turnbull emphasized.
When asked about potential improvements in the party's standing, Turnbull expressed caution: "I'm not sure how much of a bump they'll get." This uncertainty underscores the significant work ahead for Lewis as he attempts to redefine the NDP's identity and relevance in a political landscape where satisfaction with the current government remains relatively high.
The poll results suggest that Lewis must not only unite his party internally but also craft a compelling message that resonates with Canadians who have grown increasingly skeptical of the NDP's role in federal politics. With more people viewing the party as irrelevant than relevant, the new leader faces the dual challenge of rebuilding both support and significance in the eyes of voters across the country.
