Political commentator Warren Kinsella, reflecting on a mixed record of predictions for 2025, has turned his gaze forward with a series of forecasts for 2026. His analysis, published on January 1, 2026, paints a challenging picture for Canada-U.S. relations and global stability, centered on the health and behaviour of American President Donald Trump.
Trump's Health and Political Fallout
Kinsella's first and most stark prediction is that Donald Trump will face a major health crisis in the coming year. The columnist points to visible signs of decline, including the President's inability to stand for long periods, mysterious bruising and swelling, frequent medical scans, and speech patterns that suggest cognitive issues. Kinsella asserts that Trump "genuinely sounds like he is experiencing actual dementia."
The potential consequences, according to the analysis, could range from a silent internal coup within the White House to formal moves to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. This instability, Kinsella argues, is already making Trump a liability for his party, setting the stage for significant Democratic gains in the upcoming midterm elections.
A Stalled Trade Agenda for Canada
For Canada, the central implication of this U.S. political turmoil is a deadlock on trade. Kinsella predicts that Prime Minister Mark Carney will not secure a substantive trade deal with the Trump administration in 2026. The core issue is not Canadian diplomacy but the perceived unreliability of President Trump himself.
"The President seems to be losing his marbles," Kinsella writes, suggesting Trump is not compos mentis. He warns that any agreement signed on a Tuesday could be unilaterally torn up by Wednesday if Trump sees a critical news segment or has a change of heart. Given Trump's past use of "national emergencies" against Canadian interests, Kinsella advises the Carney government to focus on trade deals with other global partners and wait for a change in the U.S. presidency.
The AI Bubble and a Darkening Social Fabric
Beyond politics, Kinsella forecasts a dramatic correction in the technology sector. He predicts the artificial intelligence investment bubble will burst, potentially taking significant economic value with it. He cites warnings from experts like Canadian AI pioneer Yoshua Bengio about chatbots becoming independent and driving bad decisions, and highlights concerns about AI platforms nudging users toward violence or functioning as sophisticated plagiarism tools for creative work.
His final, grim prediction is a broader societal decline. Kinsella argues that humanity is becoming "less intelligent," "more violent," and less concerned with the common good. He pins the blame largely on the internet and social media, which he says have fostered a culture of misinformation, conspiracy theories, and anger over knowledge and reasoned debate.
Kinsella's 2025 predictions that he claims were correct included Justin Trudeau's departure, a successful Liberal leadership race won by outsider Mark Carney, and a major re-election win for Ontario Premier Doug Ford. His admitted miss was overestimating Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's chances in the last federal election despite large poll leads.
