A recent poll from Narrative Research indicates that Prince Edward Island could be on track to elect Canada's first Green Party government in the next provincial election, scheduled for October 2027. The Atlantic Quarterly survey, conducted in June 2026, shows the Green Party with 54 percent support among decided voters, a dramatic 32-point increase from the 2023 election. In that election, the Progressive Conservatives won a landslide majority with 56 percent of the vote and 22 of the island's 27 legislative seats.
PC Support Plummets, Liberals Rise
The Progressive Conservative Party now stands at just 18 percent support, down 38 points from the last election. The Liberal Party has risen by nine points to 26 percent, while the New Democratic Party sits at three percent, down from five percent in 2023. The poll, which surveyed 147 respondents across the province of roughly 180,000 people, has a margin of error of about seven to eight percent, 19 times out of 20.
Voter Dissatisfaction Drives Shift
Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research, attributed the shift to widespread voter dissatisfaction. “It’s really concentrated around health care, as well as debt, weak leadership, and a few other things,” she said. “That level of dissatisfaction has really translated into a sense of frustration … voters are clearly expressing frustration with the status quo and that’s translating into looking what options they might have.”
Brigley noted that the issues driving voters are not traditional Green Party priorities. “When we look at the issues that are most important to islanders, it’s not environmental concerns (or) policy initiatives that are really strongly aligned with the Green Party historically,” she said. “It’s health care, and it’s the cost of living and the cost of groceries, followed by housing.”
Green Leader Matt MacFarlane Most Preferred as Premier
The poll also measured voter preference for party leaders. Green Party Leader Matt MacFarlane, who has led the party since June 2025, was the most preferred choice for premier at 51 percent. In contrast, incumbent Premier Rob Lantz of the Progressive Conservatives received 11 percent, and Liberal Leader Rob Mitchell garnered 10 percent.
MacFarlane called the poll numbers “encouraging and humbling.” He said, “I think the polls reflect the fact that islanders see the Green Party as being a common sense party, a party that listens to islanders, brings those concerns forward and gets the work done.”
Small Sample Size Warrants Caution
Curtis Fric, founder and managing director of Polling Canada, cautioned that the small sample size means the data “should be taken with a larger pile of salt than we’d otherwise take with a given poll.” However, he added that the margin of error still puts the Greens ahead. “Which still means the Greens would be ahead on this given poll,” he said.
Green Party Positions as Multi-Issue Alternative
MacFarlane emphasized that his party has evolved beyond its environmental roots to address a broader range of concerns. “Yes, environment and ecological issues are a concern here in Prince Edward Island as they are everywhere, but our approach to politics … has always been to listen to the concerns of islanders and bring those concerns forward, not come in with a political ideology and impose it from above,” he said.
The next provincial election is set for October 2027, but an earlier election could be called if the minority Progressive Conservative government loses a confidence vote. If the Greens maintain their current level of support, they would be poised to form the first Green government in any Canadian jurisdiction.
