As NATO leaders gather in Turkey this week to confront an increasingly erratic Russian dictator and his four-year-old invasion of Ukraine, they face the delicate task of managing the equally erratic head of the alliance's principal founding member, President Donald Trump.
NATO's Dilemma: Ukraine vs. Trump's Sympathies
A year ago, at the first NATO summit since Trump's return to the White House, planners deliberately avoided discussing Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine—the largest war in Europe since World War II—to avoid triggering Trump's temper. Unlike virtually every other democratic leader, Trump has sided with Putin over Ukraine.
This year, however, the agenda places Russia and Ukraine front and center as Putin has escalated lethal attacks on residential buildings in Ukrainian cities. European leaders argue that Putin's aggression must be confronted, or they may face attacks in the near future.
“As Ukraine continues to defend its sovereignty, allies and NATO partners must continue to ensure Ukraine gets what it needs,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said at a news conference in Ankara Monday. “Because Ukraine's security is so closely linked with our own.”
How Trump will react remains an open question. Last summer, he literally rolled out a red carpet for Putin at a meeting in Alaska.
Trump's Silence on Civilian Strikes
After Putin rained ballistic missiles and drones on Ukrainian cities late last week and again on Sunday and Monday, NATO leaders swiftly condemned the strikes on civilians—actions that constitute war crimes. Trump, however, remained silent, not mentioning the attacks even once. When asked on Monday, he refused to criticize Putin and instead blamed both Russia and Ukraine equally.
“He wants to end it, and Ukraine wants to end it, and we’re in talks, and we’ll see if we can get it ended. It’s a terrible thing. I ended eight wars and this was, in my opinion, going to be an easier one,” Trump told reporters at an Oval Office photo opportunity.
How aggressively other leaders will try to coax Trump into supporting Ukraine is unclear. Trump enraged most of them with his threat to seize Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.
Before departing for the summit late Monday, Trump hinted he would pick fights. “The United States spends more money on NATO than any other country, by far, to protect them, without getting any benefit from so doing,” he wrote falsely on social media last Thursday. “Ridiculous for the U.S.A. to continue along this one sided path when the relationship is not reciprocal. They were not there for us!!!”
Trump's History with Ukraine and Zelenskyy
Supporting Ukraine and its democratically elected leader against an autocrat's war of conquest is obvious for European leaders, but Trump has never viewed Ukraine or Volodymyr Zelenskyy that way. After accepting Putin's help to win the 2016 election, Trump accused Ukraine of aiding his opponent, Hillary Clinton. He sent his personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, to Ukraine to find evidence, but Giuliani returned with Russian disinformation. That led to Trump's attempt to extort Zelenskyy in 2019 into investigating Joe Biden, resulting in Trump's impeachment on December 18, 2019. Although the Senate acquitted him, the episode colored Trump's view of Ukraine.
When Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022, Trump praised it as “genius” and “savvy.” After retaking office in 2025, he blamed Zelenskyy for getting invaded and told him he had “no cards” for a favorable peace agreement.
A year later, Zelenskyy has scrounged up cards, including a domestic cruise missile industry capable of hitting targets 1,500 miles into Russian territory and an anti-drone industry that has enabled partnerships with European and Middle Eastern countries. This display of grit has impressed even Trump. “Well, he’s doing pretty well. Look, no matter how you look at it, he’s doing pretty well. He’s holding his own at least. A lot of people dying on both sides, but I think he’s doing pretty well,” Trump said last month.
This has generated hope that Trump, who favors winners over losers, can be persuaded to back Ukraine. A joint statement last month by G7 leaders mentioned Trump by name three times. “We consider this the right moment to proceed with additional measures, as President Trump has delivered a deal that we support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” the statement read.
European Allies Question US Reliability
Among themselves, European leaders are coming to agree with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's view expressed at the World Economic Forum in January: the United States is no longer a reliable partner in maintaining the post-World War II international order. While Trump's 2016 election was seen as a one-off, his return in 2024 has led to a grimmer outlook.
“Regardless of what happens this week, NATO has already become a zombie alliance,” said Rebecca Lissner, a former White House national security aide and now an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Experts say some NATO members are ramping up plans to counter Russia without the US but will need a few years to build capability. In the meantime, the consensus approach to Trump resembles handling an unruly toddler: constant praise for positive behavior. At last year's summit in The Hague, Rutte praised Trump as a “daddy” figure. During a June Oval Office visit, Rutte brought a chart showing how Trump's cajoling increased defense spending, calling it “Trump's Trillion.”
French President Emmanuel Macron, who publicly scolded Trump for shifting claims about the Iran war, nevertheless invited him to a dinner at Versailles to deter disruptions at the G7 summit.
Retired U.S. Army Gen. Doug Lute, a former ambassador to NATO, has recommended ending annual summits because they serve as a stage for Trump to act out. He scoffed at Rutte's crediting Trump for spending increases, saying, “His 'Trump trillion' should be 'Putin's trillion.'”
Both Macron and Rutte note the pandering strategy has worked before. After issuing threats before the 2025 summit, Trump praised partners at his press conference: “These people really love their countries. It’s not a rip-off, and we’re here to help them protect their country.”
Macron defended his approach: “Versailles is an instrument of diplomacy and an instrument of power. Whether by maintaining a firm position or by re-engaging and extending a warm welcome, I am defending my country’s interests. That is what matters.”
European leaders hope to squeeze a few more years of partnership until their defense production can confront Russia without US help. “Trump has basically been on pretty good behavior in large groups of late. He didn’t throw a fit at the G7,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a former Columbia University professor and State Department veteran. “Europeans know they are not yet ready to handle this threat on their own, and as a consequence, they’re bending over backwards to keep Trump on side.”
But the end result will not be good for America, warned Charles Kupchan, a former National Security Council staffer and Georgetown professor. “There is this kind of enduring hostility toward Europe, which is, I think, really deteriorating our relationships. Yeah, there’ll be more weapons and more ships and more tanks in Europe, but we’re going to be in a heap of trouble if nobody likes us anymore.”
