In the latest Liaison Strategies federal tracking poll, the Mark Carney Liberals continue to hold a significant lead over the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives, though the gap has narrowed slightly. If a federal election were held today, 45% of respondents would vote for the Liberals, while 34% would support the Conservatives. This represents an 11-point lead, with the Tories gaining one percentage point from the previous week, when they stood at 33%.
Liberal Majority Remains Strong
Despite the slight Conservative gain, the Liberals remain in a commanding position. The party recently secured a crucial byelection victory in Terrebonne, which helped them achieve a majority government one year after the last federal election. Liaison Strategies Principal David Valentin noted, "It's another week of smooth sailing for the Liberals, who continue to dominate after winning a crucial byelection in Terrebonne. The Conservatives are up a point this week while the Liberals are flat, but that's not much for them to celebrate. The regional breakdown still points to a commanding Liberal majority if the election were held today."
New Byelection Opportunity
The Liberals may soon have another chance to expand their majority. Over the weekend, federal NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, the party's only representative in Quebec, announced his impending resignation. This opens a seat in the House of Commons that the Liberals are well-positioned to win. "Theoretically this should be an easy pick-up for the Liberals since the seat is on the Island of Montreal, is surrounded by other Liberal seats, they are leading in Quebec by 19 province-wide, etc.," Valentin said. However, he cautioned, "By-elections are strange animals sometimes and a lot could happen between now and by-election day."
Approval Ratings
Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating remains steady at 62%, just five points below his all-time high. This follows a slight dip to 60% earlier in the month. Disapproval of Carney's performance increased marginally to 31%. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's favorability also saw a slight uptick to 37%, but his unfavorability rating remained unchanged at 53%. Newly appointed NDP Leader Avi Lewis faces an uphill battle for recognition: his favorability rose to 25%, while 21% disapproved, and 37% of respondents admitted they did not know who he was.
Poll Methodology
The Liaison Strategies poll surveyed 1,000 Canadians between April 13 and April 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
