Speculation is mounting in Ottawa that Foreign Minister Melanie Joly may soon exit the federal cabinet, with sources indicating she is seeking an appointment as Canada's Ambassador to France.
Diplomatic Ambitions and Political Exits
According to multiple Liberal and other sources, Joly's potential departure could occur within weeks rather than months if the right diplomatic posting becomes available. The coveted Paris position offers significant perks, including invitations to elite social events and accommodation at the historic Hôtel de Rigny in Paris's prestigious 8th arrondissement, located near the Élysée Palace.
This potential move echoes similar political maneuvers from the past. In 2017, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointed Stéphane Dion as ambassador to Germany, later moving him to France in 2022, effectively removing him from cabinet politics. Current Prime Minister Mark Carney might employ a similar strategy with Joly as he works to reshape the Liberal Party in his own image.
Wave of Senior Liberal Departures
Joly would join several other senior Trudeau-era ministers planning their exits from federal politics. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland has been named the next Warden of Rhodes House, while Bill Blair is reportedly in line to become Canada's High Commissioner in London. Jonathan Wilkinson is seeking an ambassadorship to the European Union in Brussels.
These diplomatic appointments haven't been officially confirmed as Carney's team coordinates timing to potentially hold multiple by-elections on a unified date in the new year. This strategy aims to refresh the Liberal roster by shedding what some perceive as Trudeau-era deadwood while attracting new talent.
Imminent Cabinet Shuffle and Ministerial Changes
Further changes appear imminent, with speculation about a cabinet shuffle potentially occurring the week of December 15, after the House rises for the Christmas break. This would mark the third cabinet configuration within a year for the new government.
Several ministers face potential demotion or removal. Lena Diab's unstable performance as Immigration Minister makes her likely to be dropped, while Gary Anandasangaree may be shuffled out of Public Safety, though he could receive another position. Continued rumors also swirl around Steven Guilbeault, who maintains positions on environmental issues that conflict with Carney's support for natural resource development.
Political Risks and Opportunities in 2025
Holding multiple by-elections simultaneously presents both risks and opportunities for the Liberals. While coordinating several electoral contests carries inherent challenges, the current disarray within the NDP—which remains leaderless—and the Conservative Party's focus on Pierre Poilievre's leadership review could work to Liberal advantage.
Carney faces the challenge of attracting top talent to run in high-profile ridings in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal despite the instability of a minority government. His clear objective remains transforming the Liberal Party to reflect his vision rather than Trudeau's, as evidenced by his recent decision to drop Trudeau's feminist foreign policy terminology.
With significant changes expected in the coming weeks, the Liberal Party could present a substantially different face by spring, potentially timed with an early election call.
