A recent confidential intelligence analysis has concluded that Iran can endure the Trump administration's naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for several months before facing more severe economic consequences, according to four people familiar with the assessment who spoke to The Washington Post on Thursday.
CIA Assessment Delivered to Policymakers
The CIA analysis was reportedly delivered to policymakers this week, as the administration attempts to convince the public that the war has been an overwhelming victory for the United States and that the blockade on the major shipping channel has significantly harmed Iran.
President's Claims vs. Intelligence Findings
President Trump claimed Wednesday that the U.S. and Israel have "mostly decimated" Iran's missiles. However, according to the Post, the CIA analysis concluded that Tehran retains approximately 75% of its prewar inventory of mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles. The intelligence also indicates that Iran has been assembling new missiles that were nearly complete when the U.S. and Israel launched the war.
An intelligence official would not confirm the CIA conclusion to the paper but stressed that the U.S. blockade is "inflicting real, compounding damage" on Iran.
