Prime Minister Mark Carney has made the decline of America under President Donald Trump a central theme of his political messaging. He recently reiterated this stance in Armenia, where he met with European leaders, expressing his strong personal view that the international order will be rebuilt, but it will be rebuilt out of Europe.
As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, Carney leads a movement that suggests there is little reason to celebrate July 4th. The narrative posits that America is sliding into irrational, dictatorial lunacy under Trump, and the world can no longer believe in the constitutional principle described by Walter Isaacson as 'The Greatest Sentence Ever Written.' This sentence from the U.S. Declaration of Independence—'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness'—helped propel America to become the greatest country in the world and inspired people everywhere.
After 250 years of incomparable achievement, some declare the U.S. irreparably damaged by a Republican president who has destroyed the moral heart of the nation. In Andrew Coyne's words, 'the Republican Party has been utterly transformed, at every level. There is nothing left of the democratic, free-market, world-leading Republicanism of old.' Republican voters, he argues, are still backing Trump.
Other proponents of American decline are even more extreme, arguing that nothing remains of the founding liberal principles that drove America's 250 years of achievement. Next in line for leadership of the Republicans is said to be JD Vance, described by a USA Today columnist as 'a spineless political chameleon' with no interest in individual and economic freedom, as his support for defeated Hungarian president Viktor Orbán demonstrated.
Caution is advised, however. Raising alarms about American decline is nothing new. Wikipedia has a handy condensed history of American 'declinism' dating back more than half a century. None have proved to be accurate reflections of the overall state of America, internally or externally. In the opening words of his 2013 book, The Myth of America's Decline: Politics, Economics and Half a Century of False Prophecies, political scientist Josef Joffe wrote that association with the word decline 'is as American as apple pie.' Even before 1776, 'America was doomed, as some towering figures of the French Enlightenment claimed.'
Is Trump's America different? There are no convincing reasons to assume that America is in a fundamental state of deterioration that cannot be reversed and changed. While imperfect in some of its structures, America remains a democracy, and its history is filled with dramatic changes in direction forced by the electoral process.
Joffe reviews the up-and-down sweep of U.S. elections and how poorly-performing leaders were defeated and replaced with new politicians with new ideas—or old ideas. One good example is the economic and political turmoil during Democratic president Jimmy Carter's government. Inflation approached 14 percent, the economy faced its worst recession and unemployment rate since the Great Depression, another oil price crisis struck, and the U.S. dollar declined amid concerns about the rise of Soviet nuclear capacity. The American-backed Shah escaped Iran in 1979, leading to the creation of the Islamic Republic, which was followed by the Iran hostage crisis. And through the political turmoil, Carter still held on to 50 percent of the Democratic vote. America was in permanent decline. Or so it seemed.
In conclusion, while the current political climate may seem dire, history suggests that such periods of perceived decline are often followed by renewal. The U.S. has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to reverse course and reaffirm its founding principles. Therefore, Carney's assertion that America's decline is a new normal may be premature and overlooks the resilience built into the American system.
