Prime Minister Mark Carney is set for a busy summer as the Liberal government navigates a series of critical issues, including a looming pipeline application deadline, a potential Alberta referendum, trade negotiations for the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and multiple byelections triggered by MP resignations. According to a new Postmedia-Leger poll, the Liberals continue to lead with 48 per cent support among decided voters, down two points since June 1, while the Conservatives remain stable at 34 per cent.
Poll numbers and public satisfaction
A majority of Canadians remain satisfied with the federal government, with 57 per cent expressing approval, up three points since June 1, while 36 per cent are dissatisfied. Andrew Enns, Leger's executive vice-president, said he does not expect significant movement in these numbers during the summer, as Canadians tend to pay less attention to politics. However, he noted that substantial activity will occur behind the scenes.
Alberta pipeline application deadline
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has vowed to submit an application for a new oil pipeline project to the Major Projects Office by July 1 and is reportedly on track to do so. Once submitted, the Carney government must decide whether to greenlight the project by October 1, just before Alberta's referendum on whether to stay within Canada or hold another vote on separation.
George Vegh, former chair of the Canada Energy Regulator, explained that the decision is largely discretionary: “It’s largely discretionary on the government of Canada to designate it as a national interest project. It’s a very centralized decision, so cabinet makes that decision, and we all know ‘the cabinet’ means ‘the Prime Minister’s Office’ in today’s world. So, it’s a decision by the Prime Minister’s Office.”
It remains unclear whether Alberta will have a private proponent for the pipeline or which route it will take to the B.C. coast. Vegh noted that a memorandum of understanding between Canada and Alberta mentions private sector construction and financing, but the MOU is not binding. He pointed to the Trans Mountain expansion, which was ultimately taxpayer-funded, as an example of publicly owned projects in the regulatory world.
Trade and economic pressures
Trade discussions to decide the future of CUSMA are also on the agenda, alongside concerns about inflation. If inflation numbers take hold, the cost of food and other goods could rise further, adding to economic pressures on Canadians.
Byelections and MP resignations
Several MP resignations in the coming weeks will lead to byelections, which could shift the balance of power in Parliament. The exact timing and locations of these byelections have not yet been announced.
“This is not going to be a just a barbecue circuit for Mark Carney this summer,” said Enns, emphasizing the heavy workload ahead.
