The political future of Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government hangs in the balance as Parliament prepares for a critical budget vote on Monday, November 17, 2025. This third and final confidence vote on the government's fiscal plan could determine whether Canadians head to the polls during the holiday season.
Political Stakes and Party Positions
Both the Conservative Party and Bloc Québécois have confirmed their MPs will vote against the government's budget, leaving the Liberals scrambling to secure the two additional votes needed to pass their financial plan in the House of Commons. With all budgetary matters considered confidence votes, failure to pass the legislation would mean the government has lost the House's confidence and would be expected to resign or seek Parliament's dissolution for an election.
The situation has created such urgency that ministers and opposition party MPs are cutting short their attendance at the COP30 international climate summit in Brazil to return to Canada in time for Monday's vote. Despite the high stakes, Prime Minister Carney appears unperturbed, maintaining his scheduled travel plans for a bilateral visit to the United Arab Emirates on November 18, followed by attendance at the G20 Summit in South Africa before returning November 24.
Key Players and Potential Scenarios
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May holds a single vote that could prove decisive. She has indicated she cannot support the budget in its current form but remains open to negotiation. The seven New Democrat MPs present the most significant uncertainty, as they have not yet declared their collective position.
New Democrats spent the break week around Remembrance Day consulting constituents and stakeholders before deciding how to vote. The caucus appears divided between protesting federal public service cuts they believe will harm vulnerable Canadians, supporting specific budget measures they've advocated for, or simply abstaining from the vote.
The complexity deepens as some NDP MPs, including Jenny Kwan, have ruled out abstaining, raising questions about whether the caucus will vote uniformly. The budget contains several measures clearly designed to appeal to New Democrats, including funding for a Filipino community centre in Metro Vancouver—a project interim NDP Leader Don Davies has long championed—and over $250 million to bolster aerial firefighting capacity, addressing concerns raised by NDP MP Gord Johns.
Three Possible Outcomes
The first scenario involves the NDP caucus voting entirely in favor of the budget or at least partially supporting it through strategic abstentions. This would provide the Liberals with the necessary votes to survive the confidence test and continue governing.
A second possibility sees enough NDP MPs voting against the budget to defeat the government, triggering an election that would likely occur during the Christmas season—a timing most parties traditionally avoid due to low voter turnout and logistical challenges.
The third scenario involves a fractured NDP vote, with some members supporting the government, others opposing, and potentially some abstaining, creating an unpredictable outcome that could still result in the government's defeat given the Conservative and Bloc Québécois opposition.
Since 2023, MPs have been able to cast votes remotely, eliminating the traditional excuse of inability to attend in person. This technological change adds further pressure on all parliamentarians to take a clear position on the budget.
As the vote approaches, all eyes remain on the NDP caucus and whether last-minute negotiations might produce a compromise that avoids plunging the country into a winter election during what many consider the most wonderful time of the year.
