The British Columbia Conservative Party has taken a narrow lead over the governing New Democratic Party, according to a new Leger poll. The survey, conducted online among 1,002 B.C. residents on June 1 and 2, places Conservative support at 45 percent, compared to 41 percent for the NDP. This marks the first time the opposition party has held the lead since the 2024 provincial election.
Shift in Voter Support
Leger vice-president Steve Mossop noted that the change has been gradual. “It’s been a slow, steady build for the Conservatives and a slow, steady decline for the NDP since last October,” he said. “It’s completely a reversal of fortunes, with perhaps more to come.” The NDP’s support has dropped seven points since its peak last October, as the province grapples with record budget deficits, debates over Indigenous land rights and the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA), and broader economic uncertainty.
Conservative support has climbed from 38 percent last fall, reaching its current level after Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership victory on Saturday. The poll follows an Angus Reid Institute survey earlier this year that found the then-leaderless Conservatives ahead of the NDP by 10 percentage points after backlash over DRIPA.
New Leader's Impact
Findlay, a former federal MP and minister of revenue under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, remains relatively unknown to most British Columbians. Only 26 percent of respondents said they were familiar with her, while 43 percent had not heard of her before the survey. Among those who know her, 17 percent had a favourable impression, 22 percent viewed her unfavourably, 23 percent held a neutral opinion, and 38 percent said they did not know enough to form an impression.
Findlay does not currently hold a seat in the B.C. legislature but has stated her intention to run as soon as possible. Mossop said it remains to be seen whether she can unite the party and lead it to victory, but the early signs are promising. The poll found that six percent of NDP supporters view Findlay favourably, and seven percent said her leadership makes them more likely to vote Conservative. While these numbers are modest, Mossop noted that elections have been decided by margins of just a few percentage points.
Challenges for the NDP
The NDP, now in its second term, faces an uphill battle to secure a third mandate. Polling indicates a growing appetite for change among voters. Housing affordability remains the top issue, but its importance has declined, while concerns about the economy and the provincial deficit are increasing.
