A new poll shows Olivia Chow leading Brad Bradford in the Toronto mayoral race, but the gap has narrowed significantly. The survey, conducted by Mainstreet Research, puts Chow at 32% support among decided voters, while Bradford has 28%. This represents a tightening from previous polls where Chow held a double-digit lead.
Poll details and trends
The poll, released on July 7, 2026, surveyed 1,200 Toronto residents between July 4 and 6. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Chow's support has dropped from 38% in a similar poll conducted two weeks ago, while Bradford rose from 24%.
According to Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi, the shift is driven by increased voter attention as election day approaches. “Chow’s lead is still significant but no longer insurmountable. Bradford’s campaign has gained momentum, particularly among voters in the suburbs,” Maggi said.
Candidates and key issues
Chow, a former NDP MP and city councillor, has focused on affordable housing and transit expansion. Bradford, a city councillor representing Ward 19 (Beaches-East York), has emphasized fiscal responsibility and public safety. The poll found that housing affordability is the top issue for 35% of voters, followed by transit (22%) and crime (18%).
Bradford’s surge is attributed to his endorsement by several business groups and his strong performance in recent debates. “I’m hearing from residents who want a mayor who will keep taxes low and make our streets safer,” Bradford said in a statement.
Other candidates and undecided voters
Other candidates include former police chief Mark Saunders at 12%, city councillor Josh Matlow at 9%, and former city councillor Ana Bailão at 7%. Undecided voters make up 15% of the electorate, a figure that could sway the outcome.
“The race is far from over,” said political analyst John Laschinger. “With a significant portion of voters still undecided, both campaigns have work to do in the final weeks.”
Implications and next steps
The election is scheduled for October 24, 2026. The tightening race suggests a competitive final stretch. Chow’s campaign plans to intensify door-knocking efforts in suburban wards, while Bradford will focus on digital advertising and ground game.
“We’ve always said this would be a close race,” said Chow’s campaign manager, Mary Fragedakis. “Our message of building more affordable housing and improving transit is resonating with voters across the city.”
