Older Canadians Remain Carney's Core Support Base as Liberals Hold 14-Point Lead
According to the latest weekly federal tracker poll from Liaison Strategies, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party continues to maintain a substantial 14-point advantage over Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party. The survey reveals that this commanding lead is largely sustained by older Canadian voters, highlighting a significant demographic divide in political preferences across the nation.
Demographic Divide Widens in Political Support
David Valentin of Liaison Strategies emphasized that while the Conservatives are essentially tied with the Liberals among voters under 35 years old, the Liberals have established a massive advantage with voters over the age of 50. This demographic split underscores the crucial role that older Canadians play in keeping Carney in the top position.
If an election were held today, the poll indicates that 41% of respondents would vote Liberal, compared to 27% for the Conservatives. The federal NDP continues to struggle, tying with the Quebec-only Bloc Québécois at just 6% support nationally. The Green Party, People's Party of Canada, and other minor parties collectively bottom out at a mere 2% support, while the undecided vote remains at 14%.
Age-Based Support Breakdown
The survey provides detailed insights into how support varies across different age groups:
- 50-64 year olds: 48% support for Liberals
- 65+ year olds: 41% support for Liberals
- 35-49 year olds: 40% support for Liberals
- 18-34 year olds: 36% support for Liberals
Conversely, the strongest support for the Conservatives comes from the youngest demographic, with 34% of 18-34 year olds backing Poilievre's party.
Regional Variations in Political Support
The poll also reveals distinct regional patterns in political allegiance. Atlantic Canada continues to be Carney's strongest refuge of support at 46%, followed closely by British Columbia at 47% and Ontario at 44%. In contrast, Poilievre's support is most concentrated in Alberta with 42%, followed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 34%, and British Columbia at 31%.
Leader Approval Ratings Show Stability
Carney continues to command impressive favorability ratings, with his approval consistently clocking in at 64%. Valentin noted that this stability suggests a very solid and resilient base of support for the Liberal leader. "Despite minor fluctuations over the past year, he has consistently maintained a two-to-one approval-to-disapproval ratio, reflecting a durable personal brand as he leads his party to a significant national advantage," Valentin explained.
In comparison, Poilievre's 53% unfavorability rating continues to outpace his 38% approval rating, though he has recovered slightly from a dip late last month.
Poll Methodology and Reliability
The Liaison Strategies poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,000 Canadians between March 9 and March 21, 2026. The survey carries a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, providing statistically significant insights into the current political landscape as the Liberals maintain their substantial lead over the Conservatives.
