The rejection of Corb Lund's Water Not Coal petition, aimed at stopping new mines on the Eastern Slopes of the Rockies, throws Alberta's whole referendum system into doubt and disrepute. Lund wasn't exaggerating when he said his cause got “screwed pretty hard.” The petition was defeated by an illogical, unbelievable decision by Elections Alberta.
Petition Process and Statistical Sampling
Lund's volunteer collectors believed they had more than 200,000 signatures. They needed 177,732 to force a legislature vote on banning new mining. Elections Alberta first determined there were only 196,192 “valid” signatures—still nearly 20,000 above the target. Then, “valid” signatures had to be “verified” using a random statistical sampling method with a 95 per cent confidence level. The count suddenly dropped by 24,000 votes to 172,088, leaving the campaign 5,000 votes short.
“I don’t feel that the process Elections Alberta used to count our Water Not Coal petition signatures was reasonable or procedurally fair,” Lund said Friday. “However, as frustrating as their decision was, I have no reason to believe there was anything underhanded or deliberate in the way it was handled.”
Concerns About Referendum Integrity
The system proved to be so deeply flawed that many people believe it’s crooked. That is almost as bad. This episode casts a long, dark shadow over the voting and counting of the 10 referendum questions—one on separation—set for Oct. 19. It seems possible that Elections Alberta will collapse under the weight of this job. If the agency can fail so spectacularly on one referendum petition, how will it do when counting votes cast on 10 questions in polling stations across the province?
According to Elections Alberta, there’s at least a five per cent chance they’re wrong. The result was decided by “random statistical sampling.” A couple of hundred people got verification phone calls. Some didn’t answer, likely suspecting spam. Elections Alberta itself warned citizens not to divulge personal information to unknown callers.
Impact on Future Referendums
Lund has serious problems with that process. Elections Alberta’s computer evidently thought it detected widespread funny business. No appeal is possible except maybe in court. Lund’s effort is no longer listed as a current petition. The fiasco signals trouble for the Oct. 19 referendum blitz, raising questions about the agency's capacity to handle the massive task.
